Russia’s impending Anschluss of the Crimean peninsula is raising the specter of a Second Cold War that will propel Europe - once again, and against the deeper ‘tides’ of history - back into a central theater of world politics. This new development, which was already heralded in the HCSS 2013 study of growing Great Power Assertiveness, is likely to trigger a temptation to return to the mindset and the capability portfolio of the First Cold War. But we should recognize that this new Cold War will be different from the previous one. Internationally, two main changes stand out. First of all we have seen the emergence of powerful new - economic and political - players like China and India. It remains to be seen how the global dynamics around this new Cold War on the Eurasian continent will play out globally. Secondly, the levels of interdependence between Russia and the West lead to a qualitatively different international dynamic. But also domestically - and maybe more importantly - our main ‘opponent’ is very different from the Soviet Union. Profound societal changes that have taken place in Russian society over the past 2 decades. Contrary to the first Cold War, we now have multiple (and powerful) constituencies in Russia that have strong vested interests that are different from those of the current Russian leadership. This includes (significant and growing) segments of Russia’s burgeoning middle classes that want less corruption and more normalcy. It also includes a subset of Russia’s increasingly global business leaders that have developed significant stakes in the West. This opens up a variety of new opportunities for Western policy. Russian society has also leaped into the information age with gusto, leading to both new opportunities (social media) and threats (cyberattacks or -terrorism) One of the major new challenges for Western defense and security organizations will therefore how we will recalibrate our current ‘expeditionary warfare’ mindset and capability portfolio towards a new blend that will include those parts of the ‘old’ Cold War mindset and capability portfolio that may still be required but will also add new ideas and capabilities to deal with an unprecedented range of new threats but especially also opportunities..
Posted on: Fri, 07 Mar 2014 13:28:50 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015