SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: I APOLOGIZE FOR THE HYPE AND PANIC I MIGHT OF DONE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT NOW IT APPEARS A LOWER END OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO EXIST FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AREA WITH THE GREATER AND MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE TIMING ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY RESTRICTIONS, EVEN WITH GOOD DYNAMICS AND GOOD SHEAR ARE SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH FOR A HIGHER-END SEVER WEATHER THREAT. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS AN INTENSE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, MID-LEVEL SHEAR, UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S THE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO CANT BE DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE INTERACTION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER 50 KNOTS. A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED, BUT A FEW WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED AND A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED THOUGH SHOULD STORM PREDICTION CENTER FEEL LIKE IT. A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DALLAS FORT-WORTH AREA AND POINTS SOUTH INTO THE HOUSTON AREA WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH THE REAR RIGHT-QUADRANT OF THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE AND MID-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND A SQUALL LINE WILL HAVE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS...A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO COME THROUGH MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL BE THE COOPERATE FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FURTHER SOUTH INTO TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
Posted on: Fri, 21 Nov 2014 07:16:25 +0000
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