SPC AC 042000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEB AND WESTERN/CENTRAL IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MO VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...NEB/IA/MN... RELATIVELY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXISTING OUTLOOK AND ASSOCIATED REASONING...SEE PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW...TORNADO WATCH 539 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. WITH SURFACE BASED TSTMS LIKELY TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF A SURFACE TRIPLE POINT...THE GREATEST OVERALL SEVERE THREAT AND TORNADO POTENTIAL /POSSIBLY STRONG/ IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN IA INCLUDING AREAS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THIS IS IN VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ...KS/MO/OK... DEEPENING CU FIELD IS BECOMING READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 20Z ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST/FAR WESTERN OK. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL OK. ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DRYLINE...SEMI-DISCRETE/POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE /INCLUDING HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME TORNADO RISK/ PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE GRADUALLY BEING OVERTAKEN /FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST/ INTO THIS EVENING.
Posted on: Fri, 04 Oct 2013 21:23:20 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015