Scottish independence: Experts set out oil prediction A leading oil economist has predicted almost 100 new discoveries in the North Sea over the next 30 years - as a major industry figure warned against basing an independent Scotlands economic future on exaggerated claims. Prof Alex Kemp said there could be 99 commercially viable oil finds by 2045. His report came as Sir Ian Wood claimed some oil forecasts were misleading. The Wood Review author called for realism to take precedence over fantasy ahead of the referendum. In a paper on the long-term potential of North Sea oil and gas, Prof Kemp outlined 99 viable finds. But he also argued there could be a further 58 discoveries which would be uneconomic by 2050 but could later become viable with higher oil prices and technological improvements. He also highlighted 147 already discovered fields which were not yet at the detailed planning stage and 25 fields currently being assessed for development. Prof Kemp, from the University of Aberdeen, said some existing producing fields such as Clair can confidently be expected to remain viable beyond 2050. He added: Further, in our comprehensive database no fewer than 125 known existing discoveries remain undeveloped at 2050 because they are not commercially viable at the $90 (real) oil price. In aggregate they contain total potential recoverable reserves in the range 2.5-3 billion boe (barrels of oil equivalent). Some have extremely high costs per barrel and may never be commercially viable. But, even the most bearish commentators on the oil market would agree that by 2050 real oil prices are likely to be much higher, and thus more developments should be triggered by that time, even with the expected reduction in infrastructure availability.
Posted on: Wed, 10 Sep 2014 19:25:54 +0000
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