So: Here is what would happen if the national shares of each party in current polling were repeated at the general election, and the swing was uniform (The same in every single constituency.) Labour 34%, Con 30%, UKIP 18%, LD 7% UNS Prediction: Labour: 89 gains, 0 losses (+89): 347 seats Conservative: 18 gains, 71 losses (-53) 254 seats UKIP: 0 gains, 0 losses (NC) 2 Seats Lib Dems: 0 gains, 36 losses (-36) 21 seats Scottish National Party: 6 seats Plaid Cymru: 3 seats Green Party: 1 seat Others: 19 seats Result: Labour Majority of 44 seats Here is the result adjusted for what would actually happen, rather than just the uniform swing (Which is obsolete) when Labours collapse in Scotland, Labours fantastic performance in England and correspondingly the Tory disaster (A 9% swing according to Ashcroft) and constituency polling is taken into account. Labour: 365 seats (+108) Conservatives: 205 seats (-102) Lib Dems: 37 seats (-20) UKIP: 15 seats (+13) Scottish National Party: 26 seats Plaid: 3 seats Greens: 1 seat Others: 19 seats Result: Labour Majority of 80 seats.
Posted on: Mon, 24 Nov 2014 23:33:19 +0000
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015