Sport: NFL (5* NFL Play of the Day) Market: Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Chiefs -6 ½ points Odds: $1.78 Agency: Bet365 Wager: 5 units Analysis: We’re playing on the revenge factor here and while the Chiefs have a new quarterback and coach, theres a lot of players on this roster that remember last years embarrassing 23-point loss (7-30) loss to the Browns in Cleveland. That motivation is the key to why we’re laying the 6 ½ -points on the undefeated Chiefs in what many will call a letdown spot for the home team. Kansas City has had a couple of close calls with 1-point wins at home over the Cowboys in Week 2 and the Texans last week, but those are the only two games they havent won by at least 9-points. With the public backing the Browns, it only makes us like this play even more. Clevelands season was lost when Brian Hoyer tore his ACL in Week 5 and the players have shown it on the field, losing each of their last two games by at least 14-points. The Browns are 0-6 ATS on the road in Weeks 5-9 over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average score of 15.3-27.2. Cleveland is also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Thats a combined 1-14 Triple System or 93% System in favour of the Chiefs! We look for the Kansas City offence to provide more than they did last week and the defence to force several big turnovers and sacks to create easy scoring opportunities and most importantly keep the Browns off the scoreboard. Take the Chiefs -6 ½ for a big 5 units here in our 5* NFL Play of the Day. Sport: NFL (5* NFL Total of the Day) Market: Washington Redskins @ Denver Broncos Pick: Total OVER 58 points Odds: $1.92 Agency: Sportsbet Wager: 5 units Analysis: The Washington Redskins defence has been one of the worst in the NFL for the past two years. The Redskins are giving up 30.7 points per game, and now theyll go up against the highest scoring team in the league. Denver is ticked off after losing last week in Indy, and the Broncos should light up the scoreboard here. RG3 wasnt completely ready at the beginning of the season, but he has looked much better in the past couple games. This Denver defence isnt very good. They are actually dead last in the NFL in pass yards allowed per game. The Redskins have one of the most balanced offences in the league, and they should score plenty too. The over is 4-0-1 in the Broncos last 5 against a team with a losing record. The over is 13-3 in the Broncos last 16 October games. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. We had this total in the high 60’s so there is definite value here. Take the OVER 58 points in this one for a big 5 units in our 5* NFL total of the day. Sport: NFL Market: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Oakland Raiders Pick: Steelers Win Odds: $1.78 Agency: Centrebet (Promo – if your team leads at ¾ time and lose, it’s money back) Wager: 5 units Analysis: The Steelers have got their season headed in the right direction, but that 2-4 record is considered a disappointment. Oakland has the same record at 2-4, but to most thats better than people expect. With the Raiders coming off a bye, we believe oddsmakers have set this line way too low. Teams coming off a bye are just 3-5 ATS so far in 2013 and the last 9 teams who were coming off a bye and listed as a home dog are 2-7. Adding to this is that teams in this situation who are less than a 3-point dog are 1-8 ATS in the last 9 times its happened. Ben Roethlisberger should have his way with a suspect Raiders secondary that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.4% of their attempts and the Steelers defence that is allowing just 306.8 ypg should have no trouble slowing down Terrelle Pryor. Pittsburgh will also be playing with some revenge on their minds, as they were stunned 31-34 at Oakland last year. Take the Steelers to win this one for a big 5 units. Sport: NFL Market: New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Giants +7 ½ points Odds: $1.70 Agency: Centrebet Wager: 4 units Analysis: The New York Giants only have one win, but if they win this Sunday they will legitimately still have a chance in the crazy mess that is the NFC East. The Giants have played much better football the last two weeks. They narrowly lost at Soldier Field and then dominated Minnesota. The Giants are a better team than they showed early in the year, and we think they can take advantage of a weak Eagles secondary here. Philadelphia is dead last in the NFL in pass defence. Eli Manning has the pass catchers to tear apart this secondary. Mike Vick is still dinged up and the Eagles have been terrible at home over the last couple years. The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a double digit home loss. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing road record. They are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after gaining less than 90 rushing yards in the previous game. Philadelphia is 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 after allowing more than 350 yards of offense in their last game. A 22-0 angle here. We’re taking lower odds to ensure we get the full TD start. Take the Giants +7 ½ points in this one. Sport: NFL Market: New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Total OVER 50 Points Odds: $1.91 Agency: Centrebet Wager: 4 units Analysis: The New York Giants offence has finally started to click the last couple weeks. The passing game looked much better against both Chicago and Minnesota. The running game is bad, but I’m not sure they’ll even be attempting to run against this terrible Eagles secondary. Philadelphia gets a big boost from Mike Vick being back in the lineup this weekend. Vick isn’t a great quarterback at this stage of his career, but he is certainly better than anyone else the Eagles have on their roster. Philadelphia’s quick pace allows a chance for a lot more points to be scored than an average NFL contest. The Eagles secondary is the worst in football, and we expect Eli Manning and the Giants receivers to take advantage of that. The Giants defence used to be known for getting pressure on the quarterback, but their leading pass rusher has just 1.5 sacks so far this year. Both of these defences have gotten much worse in the last couple years. Their earlier meeting this year went over the posted total, and we expect this one to do exactly the same. This game should make its way into the upper 50’s at a minimum. Take the OVER 50 points here for a strong 4 units. Sport: NFL Market: Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Saints -9 ½ points Odds: $1.75 Agency: Centrebet Wager: 4 units Analysis: The New Orleans Saints are very tough to beat at home. They are even tougher to beat off a bye week. Sean Payton has established himself as one of the brightest minds in the league, and you better believe he will have his team ready to play after an extra week of preparation. The Buffalo Bills have been playing better than expected, but the Bills arent even on the same level as the Saints. Thad Lewis has been pretty good as their quarterback, but this is a tough environment. In addition, C.J. Spiller is now listed as questionable for this game, and that is huge. Fred Jackson will play, but he isnt 100 percent. The Saints should roll here. The favourite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams. The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. New Orleans is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games when playing against a defence that allows 350 or more yards per game. Buffalo is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an upset win. A 27-1 angle backs this. We like this match up, take the Saints -9 ½ points here for a strong 4 units. Sport: NFL Market: Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots Pick: Patriots -5 ½ points Odds: $1.93 Agency: Betfair Wager: 4 units Analysis: The Patriots are coming off an ugly loss last week at home against the Jets and thats more than enough reason to back Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at home against the Dolphins. Dating back to the 2003 regular season, New England has lost back-to-back games just 4 times, with the most recent being early last year in the first three weeks of the season. This team almost always saves their best football for the stretch run and we believe they havent come close to reaching their potential in 2013. Most importantly the Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. Both of their wins over the Dolphins last year and five of the last six overall have came by at least a touchdown. That’s good enough for us. Take the Patriots -5 ½ points in this one for a strong 4 units. Sport: NFL Market: Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions Pick: Lions -2 ½ points Odds: $1.84 Agency: Sportsbet Wager: 3 units Analysis: Well gladly lay 2 ½ -points on the Lions at home. Detroit is coming off a heartbreaking loss at home to the Bengals while the Cowboys recorded an ugly win over the Eagles. We believe these results have created value on the Lions. Detroit had won each of their previous two home games, while the Cowboys had lost their previous two on the road. Both of these offences are built to throw the football and we think Detroit has the edge with Calvin Johnson and Reggie Busch. Cowboys corner Brandon Carr is underrated, but he wont be able to guard Johnson by himself. Dallas also doesnt have the talent at linebacker to guard Bush. On the flip side of things, we think Romo, Witten and Bryant will get theres but we look for the Detroit dominant defensive line to take over this game and force Romo into some costly mistakes. Heres a solid system that backs fading the Cowboys and jumping on the Lions based off last weeks results. Teams who held their opponent to 6-points or less in their last game (Dallas), vs an opponent off a loss by 3-points or less (Lions) with a line of +3 to -3 are 6-28 (17.6%) ATS since 1983. Thats a 82.4% system favouring Detroit – and we like the look of that. Take the Lions -2 ½ points here for 3 units. Sport: NFL Market: New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: Total UNDER 41 ½ points Odds: $1.92 Agency: Centrebet Wager: 3 units Analysis: We’re expecting a very low scoring game this Sunday between the Jets and Bengals. Both of these teams are defensive-minded and set up to stop the opposing teams strengths. New Yorks Antonio Cromartie will be able to slow down A.J. Green and really limit the Bengals offensively with their ability to stop the run. The Bengals on the other hand have the talent up front to put pressure on rookie quarterback Geno Smith. When Smith doesnt have time to set his feet, hes struggled to do much of anything. The Jets have scored 20 or fewer points in 4 of their 7 games this year, with the 3 performances above that mark coming against poor defensive teams in Buffalo, Atlanta and New England (2nd time around Patriots were missing several key starters on defence). The Bengals have scored 21 or fewer points in four of their six games. Unless this game features 6 turnovers and a couple defensive/special teams touchdowns, I look for a lot of field goals in store. The UNDER is 6-0 in the Bengals last 6 games vs teams who excel at controlling the football (32 or more minutes/game) with an average combined score of 32.1 points. The UNDER is also 5-1 in the Jets Last 6 games following a SU win and 6-1 in the Bengals last 7 home games. Take the UNDER 41 ½ points for 3 units in this one. Sport: NFL Market: Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Vikings +10 ½ points Odds: $1.84 Agency: Betfair Wager: 4 units Analysis: The Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night in Week 8 of the NFL season. The Vikings are coming off a 23-7 loss to the Giants, while the Packers beat Cleveland in Week 7, 31-13. The Vikings are coming off a dreadful performance on Monday night in front of a national audience, and after embarrassing themselves the way they did, the betting public was quick to jump off the Minnesota bandwagon, but dont be surprised when the team turns things around on Sunday night. The team was out of that game early, meaning not much Adrian Peterson down the stretch. Dont expect them to make that mistake this week. Quietly lost in Mondays game was a strong effort by the Minnesota defence, which had to spend a ton of time on the field given the teams offensive ineptness. Theyll look to put forth another strong effort in this one. The Packers also came into this season with a lot of concerns surrounding their offensive line and their defence, and nothing has been done to address those issues. With injuries up and down the depth chart at the skill positions, it will be tough for the Packers to build up a margin. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams. We’ll take the big start in this one. Take the Vikings +10 ½ points for a strong 4 units. #EasyMoney
Posted on: Sun, 27 Oct 2013 12:18:25 +0000
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