Stanlib Morning Market Commentary Thursday 3rd July 2014 US markets edged up by just 0.1% last night, despite the ADP Payrolls report on the private sector showing that employment at companies increased by a substantial 281,000 in June, the highest number in 19 months, way ahead of estimates of 205,000. Manufacturing and construction did well. Today the US government’s official jobs report (“non-farm payrolls”) is estimated to show around 215,000 jobs created in June. European markets were -0.2% and London’s FTSE 100 +0.2%. Asian markets are quiet ahead of the US payrolls report, often regarded as the biggest number of all, with the Nikkei -0.2%, Hang Seng -0.1%, just off a 5 month high and Aussie bravely forging ahead on its own, +0.7% (following us!) The JSE All Share had another good day yesterday, up 0.8% to 51,883, led by Resources +1.1% and Industrials +0.9%, which was heavily influenced by a whopping 5.4% gain in Naspers to 1331 rand per share. Many of the same names keep popping up on the new highs list, including Brait, Supergroup (interesting, with weak vehicle sales in SA), Pioneer Foods, Netcare, Old Mutual, Sanlam, Woolies, Steinhoff, Sibanye. New lows included WBHO, Adcock and Ellies. Aveng reported earnings would be down 10%, causing the share to lose 4.3%, keeping construction companies in the doldrums. Murray & Roberts share was around R108 in 2008 versus approx. R24 today. So not all shares/sectors are happy. The dollar is flattish this morning at $1.365 to the euro from $1.367 and versus the pound at $1.71. The rand is weaker at 10.74 today to the dollar (from 10.68), at 18.40 from 18.32 versus the pound, 14.66 to the euro from 14.60 and 10.07 versus the Aussie from 10.07. The US 10-year yield is 6 basis points higher at 2.62% on further news of a stronger US economy. The SA 13-year R186 bond yield is up 4 basis points at 8.38%, probably in sympathy and also the weaker rand. A labour expert, Loane Sharp, was quoted in yesterday’s Business Reports saying the unions in SA have only a 12% share of labour outside of the mining industry, including NUMSA, which is currently on strike. So his view is this strike is unlikely to drag on for long. Paul Hansen Director: Retail Investing Stanlib Wealth Management stanlib
Posted on: Thu, 03 Jul 2014 09:48:50 +0000
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