Synoptic Clues As High Uncertainty Continues For Our Region: Note the snow over Pennsylvania. That has to dissipate for the dry slot to fully disappear over our region. So far it has not. Upward motion creates snow. So clearly there is upward motion in Central Pennsylvania and clearly there is upward motion out over the ocean. When you are in-between two areas of snow, there is typically downward motion which is unfavorable for snow. NJ sits on the edge of the downward motion. Eastern Pennsylvania is clearly within the downward motion. I am noting bands of snow beginning to come onshore. I think they make progress inland. However, they will not get past the baroclinic leaf in all likelihood. When cyclogenesis or the bombing out of a low pressure area begins to unfold, the middle and upper level cloud deck appearance takes on a crescent shape which can be seen on satellite imagery. Since this shape often looks like a leaf, it is named the baroclinic leaf. This leaf represents that lifting from the low pressure system and the associated warm and cold fronts. But more importantly, usually there is a distinct cut off visible on the western fringe of the baroclonic leaf. During these bombing storm situations, usually the heavy precipitation falls east of the distinct line. That is all I can say. It really is a minute by minute look at the radar. What to Watch During the next few hours: -Monitor if and when the snow breaks down to our west (likely if the low over the ocean soon closes off. If the low closes off and the breakdown of snow happens to our west, the snow will fill in to the edge of the leaf nicely. Beyond the edge of that leaf, you are not likely going to get much.
Posted on: Tue, 27 Jan 2015 02:51:19 +0000
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