TROPICAL SATELLITE ANALYSIS OF THE Atlantic Ocean image shows at 0000 Z OCT 22 2014 the following ---------ONE North Atlantic (non tropical) Low Pressure Storm---------------- One North Atlantic Low Pressure System That Is Located At 41.00 N 72.00 W ---------------------ONE Tropical Low Pressure System-------------------------- ONE Tropical Low Pressure System That Is Located At 27.00 N 53.00 W -------------------------Developing Tropical Cyclones------------------------ UPDATE INVEST 93 L 19.02 N 93.08 W An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft did find a small well- defined low in the southern Bay of Campeche. However, the thunderstorms associated with the low are still not organized enough for this system to be considered a tropical cyclone. Upper-level winds could become more conducive for further development by tomorrow, and this system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland over the Mexican state of Campeche late Wednesday or early Thursday. Later in the week, tropical cyclone formation appears unlikely due to interaction with a cold front while the system is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Campeche and elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm warnings could need to be issued with short notice. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. INVEST 92 L 33.06 N 28.06 W A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles south of the Azores. This system is producing winds of gale-force and could acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves west- southwestward at about 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Thursday and development after that time is not likely. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. ------------------------------TWO Tropical Wave---------------------------------- One Tropical wave that is located at 31.00 N 7700 W to 27.00 N 79.00 W One Tropical wave that is located at 13.00 N 51.00 W to 5.00 N 55.00 W --------------------------- GULF OF MEXICO--------------------------------------- A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KOPM...KBBF... KGRY...AND KIPN. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... A LOW CLOUD CEILING HAS FORMED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT PERRY FLORIDA. FORT MYERS FLORIDA IS REPORTING A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. ---------------------------------- CARIBBEAN SEA----------------------------- MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 81W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST/COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD FROM 77W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...IN SURFACE- TO-LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN CURACAO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS SOUTHERN PANAMA NEAR 7N81W...AND BEYOND 8N84W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MARACAIBO... AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 74W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD. -----------------------------------.HISPANIOLA---------------------------------- . MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N63W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A 68W/69W RIDGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ARE BEING REPORTED AT OBSERVING SITES THAT ARE AROUND THE ISLAND. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL PUSH NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. --------------------------------- ATLANTIC OCEAN---------------------------------- THE TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 24N65W...TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W 21N74W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N69W 29N78W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 58W AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W...TO A WEAKENING 29N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N56W...TO 29N55W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N55W...TO 25N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 49W AND 55W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 43W AND 44W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 26N48W...ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 20N43W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N63W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND 68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CENTERED NEAR 9N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 43W AND 44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N24W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N NORTHWARD...BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT REACHES 31N11W AT ITS SOUTHERNMOST POINT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 29N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 17W AND 27W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 42W.
Posted on: Wed, 22 Oct 2014 00:44:36 +0000
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