TROPICAL UPDATE SAT 7AM: Karen remains a sheared cyclone this morning with the main convective area located about 80NM SE of the center. Earlier MVSAT indicate winds of at best 41 mph in the NE quadrant. There are recent reports from a USAF Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft of stronger winds in the convection, but it is unclear how representative these winds are, so the initial intensity is decreased to 41 mph. Karen jogged a bit NW’ward during the past several hours...but it appears to have resumed a N/NW’ward. The low/mid-level ridge currently steering Karen should weaken today as a deep-layer trough and associated cold front move E’ward through the central united states. This should cause Karen to turn northward and then NE’ward during the next couple of days. While the track guidance agrees with this scenario...there remains some spread on the timing of the NE’ward turn. The new track forecast is nudged northward based on the initial position and motion...and it CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER in 24-36 hours, followed by a final landfall in ALABAMA or the WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS. If Karen continues on this tract and does not intensify further, S. Mississippi will be affected by minimal TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS…35 gusting to 45 mph with heavy rain at times. This will mainly affect the 3 coastal counties, with Jackson county feeling the most from the storm. Stay Safe, another update will be out this afternoon at 5pm.
Posted on: Sat, 05 Oct 2013 12:16:54 +0000
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