The ISIS cloud brings the Assad regime in Syria and the Muslim brothers in the region a silver lining Take note of the secret talks in Geneva and the open discussions in Amman The ISIS Mesopotamian blitzkrieg of the last few weeks has caused the “international community” led by the USA to revisit the ideas promoted by many Western “ think thanks “ a few years ago to promote the power aspirations of “ moderate political Islam” in return for them taking a clear and direct role in combatting the ISIS type of Jihadists movements Lebanon has always been a microcosm of the power struggle in the region and a barometer of its intensity. There are now signs of the outlines of a solution to the political impasse in Lebanon which will bring into power a compromise candidate army leader Brigadier-General Jean Kahwaji This compromise will bypass the two main contenders for the post of president of the republic., the Saudi backed “ right wing Lebanese nationalist” and anti-Syrian former militia leader Samir Farid Geagea as well as, the pro-Syrian maverick politician and former head of the Lebanese army General Michel Naim Aoun . The . Michel Aoun will not come out of the struggle as empty handed as his arch rival he insists that the next army chief is his in law Shamel Roukoz , Commander of the ( فوج المغاوير Regiment,) The Sunni prime minister will be someone from among Saad Al hariri party who will need to be seen to be championing the interests of his community and that of moderate Sunni Islam if he is to have any chance of being accepted by the Sunni majority in Lebanon This Lebanese compromise would not have been possible had it not been for the little publicised talks now taking place in Geneva between representatives of the Bashar Alassad regime and Western countries led by the USA aimed at power structuring in Syria which falls short of regime change but will involve some power sharing agreement between the Baathist/Secular/ Alawaite regime and the Syrian Muslim Brothers . This Volte-face by a Saudi ally in Lebanon was unthinkable even six months ago had it not been for ISIS. In part this is because ISIS has highlighted the fact that “ Arab secular liberals “have no fighting grass root supporters in the Arab world who can stem or even dent the extremism plaguing the region. The West are not interested to get sucked into the regional quagmire more than they have been so far , At least not to the extent of putting boots on the grounds which can leads to their troops returning home in body bags Muslim Brothers are now urgently needed to man the anti ISIS trenches with the acceptance that their support will of course come at a price. Power sharing Jordan which has always been sensitive to “winds of change “ in the region seems to accept that presence of ISIS on its borders has changed the geopolitical picture and that the regional moment “ for the complete marginalisation /exclusion if not elimination” of the Muslim Brotherhood from Jordanian politics has come and gone .Hamas performance in Gaza and its rising popularity among the local population was another factor. Consequently the Jordanian monarchy is making tentative moves to rehabilitate the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood ( much against Saudi pressure ) on condition the Jordanian MB accept the principle of participation rather than seek domination as they did in the past. What has all this to do with Libya ? There is a similar conclusion by the “International Community” that the attempt by some in Libya , to seize the favourable regional moment brought about by the 30th of June coup in Egypt “ to deal a fatal blow to Political Islam in Libya “ has also come and gone without producing the desired effect . A similar formula to that of the one referred to above which is gaining momentum in Jordan whereby political Islam will participate but not dominate is now the centre piece for UN proposed “national reconciliation” in Libya Up until a couple of months ago such scenarios seemed most unlikely. Regional petro dollar powers were pouring billions to insure a reversion to the Arab Spring status quo ante. Some in Libya have been beneficiaries of this largesse A year ago the idea of promoting a moderate “Muslim Democratic Movement “ to take on the Jihadi extremists ( I wrote a piece in the Tripoli Post to that effect ) seemed like a USA State Department delusional apparition which has been cast away by the ousting of the Muslim Brothers from power in Egypt , never to return to the region again .. Isis changed all that This yet another change in regional political alignments is likely to have an impact on the situation in Libya as well. The extent of the impact will depend in part on the acceptance by parties of political Islam in Libya that just as their Jordanian counterparts they will be participators, perhaps senior participants, but definitely not as sole dominators of the political scene as was their wish until quite recently. Meanwhile the fighting and loss of lives will continue as each side tries to create facts on the ground to use as bargaining chips on the inevitable negotiations table Events in Libya have always followed the regional trend. This time it will be no different
Posted on: Thu, 14 Aug 2014 21:32:52 +0000
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