The Premier League loves a transfer ‘saga’, usually surrounding a star player moving to another league. The Cesc-Fabregas-to-Barcelona rumours were an annual event; filling the back pages of newspapers until the midfielder’s move to the Catalan giants finally happened. As Fabregas departed, it was Luka Modric’s turn to become the writer’s favourite transfer story; first involving Tottenham receiving huge bids from Chelsea in the summer of 2011 before the Croatian international departed to Real Madrid at the end of August last year. This summer, fans have been treated to a few major transfer storylines, with the futures of two players – Luis Suarez and Gareth Bale – very much interlinked. There will always be the question as why some transfer deals seem to be long, drawn out sagas. Monaco’s pursuit of Radamel Falcao and PSG’s acquisition of Edinson Cavani, due to his release clause, were swift in comparison – as was Napoli’s move for Gonzalo Higuain to replace the departed Cavani. There were rumours of interest from Real Madrid for both Luis Suarez and Gareth Bale before the season had drawn to a conclusion, so why wait until the end of July to make a formal offer for either player? Nonetheless, the approach of the Spanish club for Bale differed greatly from Arsenal in their pursuit of Suarez – making world record level initial offers for the 24- year-old, in the region of £50 million higher than Arsenal’s opening Suarez bid. While Bale is two years younger than Suarez and, of course, creates fewer negative headlines (although both players do have a history of diving), the gap between the transfer fees for these two players really should not be this high. The transfer fees paid by other clubs have to be the guide for both Bale and Suarez, although that does depend on the nature of the possible £40 million release fee in the Uruguayan’s contract. The two biggest transfer fees commanded so far this summer were on players heading to France, with Radamel Falcao joining Monaco for a reported £51 million fee, and Edinson Cavani heading to French champions Paris Saint-German for £55 million. The values of both players were based mainly on their goal scoring abilities, with their respective goal tallies almost reaching their key pass totals: While both players approached 30 goals last season, Suarez and Bale failed to reach 25 in one fewer appearance each – finishing second and third behind Manchester United’s Robin van Persie as the Dutchman led the Premier League’s goal scoring charts. Cavani and Falcao were also more clinical in front of goal; with their shots-per-goal ratios of 5.4 and 4.4 respectively well ahead of their Premier League counterparts: While Bale and Suarez did trail Cavani and Falcao in terms of goals overall, it should be noted that neither Premier League player scored a penalty last season – with Cavani (7) and Falcao (8) boosting their goal totals from the spot. By removing penalties from their goal totals, Suarez would lead the way with 23 goals. Suarez and Bale were the Premier League’s most prolific players in terms of shots, with no player having more shots than the Liverpool striker and Bale’s total only beaten by Suarez. While Suarez’s higher number of goals has resulted in a better appearance-per-goal ratio during the 2012/13 season, his additional number of shots gave Bale the edge in terms of each player’s number of shots per goal. So while the argument can be made that both Suarez and Bale are as good in front of goal as the £50 million- plus strikers Cavani and Falcao, once penalties are removed from their goal totals, neither Premier League player has been as clinical. Nonetheless, the biggest difference between these two sets of players is on the creative side of the game. Whereas Cavani and Falcao created 31 and 32 chances respectively, Bale more than doubled and Suarez approached tripling these key pass totals: Both Suarez and Bale had a similar number of passes per match as well as accuracy, although Suarez had the creative edge. Suarez created an additional 15 chances in comparison to Bale, with four extra big chances – although both players surpassed Cavani (6) and Falcao (4) in this respect. This additional attacking threat should certainly boost the value of both players and it has been reflected in their respective BSports Ratings, with Gareth Bale topping this group with a BSports Rating of 87.01, ranking the Welshman ahead of Suarez (85.49), Cavani (83.78) and Falcao (80.78). Regardless of whether Bale is worth the £85 million offered by Real Madrid (this is very much debatable), by comparing the Welshman to Cavani and Falcao it is clear that the transfer fees spent on these two strikers have boosted Bale’s value – especially when their respective ages are considered (Bale has recently turned 24, with both Cavani (26) and Falcao (27) older). Tottenham, of course, is reported to seek almost double the fees spent on both strikers, making Bale the world’s first £100 million player. The Suarez situation is different. The tabloid media’s favourite footballer has been subject to interest both domestically and abroad, with Arsenal the only club known to actually make an offer. Nonetheless, their bids for the striker have been considered to be too low, which is unsurprising when compared to the transfer fees spent on Falcao and Cavani – although the £40 million clause in his contract that may or may not be a release fee could limit the fee received by Liverpool. While arguments can be made that the attention Suarez draws on himself can have a negative effect on a club, with the lengthy bans that the striker has received during his time on Merseyside costing him playing time, this would not force a club to sell a player for £10-20 million less than the transfer fees of players in a similar bracket in terms of age and ability. Furthermore, the argument can certainly be made the Uruguay international should be valued in a similar bracket to Gareth Bale. While Suarez is two years older than the Wales international, they are certainly similar statistically. Their techniques may be different, as Bale relies on his pace whereas Suarez is more about trickery, however their production has been the same. Where Bale does have the edge is in age and his marketing potential – he has a clean-cut image that Suarez will never have due to past discretions on the field – so if Liverpool were to sell their star striker, the baseline figure should be the fee that Napoli received for Edinson Cavani, leaving the ever increasing offers for Gareth Bale to create the ceiling. It will be interesting to see how long these transfer sagas drag on; the concern for fans of both teams is if these situations only reach a conclusion at the end of the transfer window, as finding an adequate replacement for either could then prove to be difficult. The issue that both Liverpool and Tottenham have is that they cannot offer players Champions League football at this point – and by selling a star player it will possibly prove to weaken their quests to break into the top four. Both Luis Suarez and Gareth Bale are now part of the Premier League’s transfer saga summer tradition, as player power combined with the ever increasing value of football players create these media headlines. The futures of both Bale and Suarez are certainly interlinked more than Real Madrid’s interest in both players and neither player’s club wanting to sell – or even the rumours of Tottenham planning on replacing Bale with Suarez if the Welshman does leave the club. Both players have had similar results statistically, with their creative abilities proving that they should certainly command higher fees than Radamel Falcao or Edinson Cavani. However, this is something that is not in regards to Gareth Bale. If either Bale or Suarez is sold by their club, they should create a guide for the value of the other – with Bale being slightly more valuable given his age. Nonetheless, whether either player is worth £85 million or more is another question altogether. For more quick insights, follow us on Twitter @BSportsfootball
Posted on: Mon, 05 Aug 2013 17:15:39 +0000
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