The Senate 7: Republicans Positioned for Slim Senate Majority With a month to go, GOP gains look to be between 6 and 8 seats. By David Catanese and Lauren Fox Sep 30, 2014 Republicans are in their best position to recapture the U.S. Senate since the year began, with a slate of battleground races shifting slightly in their favor over the last month. If the election were held today, the GOP would pickup seats in South Dakota, West Virginia and Montana as well as Alaska, Arkansas and Iowa, according to U.S. News & World Report’s Senate 7 analysis – a breakdown of the seven most competitive races of the 2014 midterms. That’s a net gain of six seats – the exact number they need to flip the upper chamber of Congress. But the party is in perilous danger of forking over a seat in blood-red Kansas, a state that has unpredictably lept onto the battleground list late in the cycle due to an unorthodox independent candidacy. Meanwhile, the race in Colorado appears too close to call and the clash in Louisiana appears headed to a December runoff, a scenario carrying unforeseeable dynamics. If Republican Sen. Pat Roberts falls in Kansas, it’s fathomable that control of the Senate could come down to Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu’s resilience in a holiday season bayou showdown. But if Louisiana and Colorado, where another close race is brewing, continue to trend red, the GOP could very well end up with an eight-seat pickup, two more than necessary for flipping the U.S. Senate. Kentucky is done, with Sen. Mitch McConnell on his way to a hard-fought, single-digit victory over Alison Lundergan Grimes. “Any Democratic money spent here is wasted,” remarks one lobbyist tracking the slate of competitive races. And unless Democrat Michelle Nunn in Georgia figures out a way to boost African-American turnout to 2012 levels, she is likely to fall short as well, in another state where Democrats had played to pull off a surprise victory. Here are the seven races most likely to determine Senate control into the homestretch and who is winning them: 1. NORTH CAROLINA There’s no Senate race in the country causing more trepidation among Republicans than North Carolina, where state House Speaker Thom Tillis is jeopardizing a GOP opportunity to upend first-term Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C. The repeated gripe against Tillis: He’s running an uninspiring campaign with dull, lifeless television ads that aren’t cutting through. “It’s too much of a run-of-the-mill Republican campaign that sounds like the candidate’s an accountant, instead of appealing to hearts and emotions,” says Gary Bauer, president of the conservative nonprofit, American Values. Bauer says he’s hearing a “tremendous amount of complaints” about Tillis’ “lack of edge” in confronting Hagan. It probably explains why Tillis’ latest 30-second spot screams “Danger” lettering on the screen, faulting Hagan for failing to recognize the emerging threat of the Islamic State group. But the challenger is running out of time to reverse the tide. The last eight public polls have all shown Hagan with a small, but consistent single-digit lead. Who Won September: Hagan Latest Poll: Hagan 46 percent, Tillis 43 percent (CNN/Opinion Research, Sept. 22-25, 595 likely voters) 2. IOWA The election here is already underway with early voting having kicked off last week. It’s an option that traditionally favors the superiorly organized Democrats in the Hawkeye State, but it appears they’re going to need to bank an early advantage in order to catch-up to Republican Joni Ernst, who is now pacing ahead of Rep. Bruce Braley, D-Iowa, in the open seat contest. Beyond the top line head-to-head, there’s another unsettling statistic in the new Des Moines Register poll for Democrats: Braley’s not even ahead in his own district in northeast Iowa, which he’s represented for almost eight years. It was just a few weeks ago that Republicans were grousing about being outspent on the airwaves here. It appears that chorus of complaints was answered on behalf of Ernst, with groups like the National Rifle Association and the American Chemistry Council coming to her aid to even out the air war. “At the moment, Bruce is getting outspent, so obviously they’ve ramped up their efforts quite significantly,” says Norm Sterzenbach, a former executive director of the state Democratic Party. A Sunday night debate test-drove attack lines, but didn’t change the fundamental dynamic. The Register poll still showed 12 percent of likely voters undecided on their choice. “Even though she may have been ahead, I don’t think there’s a solidification of support,” says Sterzenbach. Who Won September: Ernst Latest Poll: Ernst 44 percent, Braley 38 percent (Des Moines Register, Sept. 21-24, 546 likely voters) 3. COLORADO In a swing state where Democrats rely heavily on Latino and women voters to support them on Election Day, Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo., looks like he could come up short in November. Despite Udall’s fusillade of attacks against his Republican challenger Rep. Rep. Cory Gardner, R-Colo. on women’s issues like access to birth control, one poll shows Udall leading Gardner by just three points among women voters. The “war on women” rhetoric doesn’t look like it has the sizzle it did in 2012. And with President Barack Obama’s announcement that the administration will not act unilaterally on immigration reform until after the elections, Latino voter enthusiasm is expected to drop even lower than it usually does in a midterm cycle. In the last month, Gardner’s hung tough. And while most are still in the margin of error, the last several polls show the race is inching in Gardner’s direction. Udall has also attracted ire for missteps on the debate stage this month. The incumbent had to apologize after he said that the two recently beheaded American journalists would caution the U.S. not to intervene in Syria. “I can tell you that Steve Sotloff and James Foley would tell us, ‘Don’t be impulsive,’ Udall said. There are four more debates left this cycle, but if things keep moving how they are, this could turn out to be the sweetest upset for Republicans in a state where Obama won in 2012. Who Won September: Gardner Latest Poll: Gardner 43 percent, Udall 42 percent ( USA Today/Suffolk University, Sept. 13-16, 500 Likely Voters.) 4. ALASKA It’s the cloud that looms over any analysis of the Alaskan Senate race: Beware of the polling, it’s often wrong. Democratic Sen. Mark Begich’s campaign is betting on that theory, touting their candidate as a hand-grabbing, retail politician who is eager to engage even the most conservative talk radio hosts on the most parochial issues in the Last Frontier’s most far-flung places. Find Barrow, Alaska, on a map – it’s up above the Arctic Circle. Mark Begich’s campaign can tell you their man has already been there twice. The challenger, Republican Dan Sullivan, has been less inclined to debate, but hasn’t made any glaring errors either and GOP super PAC American Crossroads has provided cover for him, tapping large donations from Sullivan’s parents. If the polling is right, Begich looks to have plateaued. He’s stuck in the mid-40s, a dangerous place to be for any incumbent, even if he’s burning through more shoe leather than his opponent. Who Won September: Sullivan Latest Poll: Sullivan 45 percent, Begich 42 percent (Public Policy Polling, Sept. 18-21, 880 likely voters) 5. ARKANSAS Its still too close to call in the Natural State, but as Obama’s unpopularity grows, the chances that incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor hangs on to his Senate seat, diminish. Cotton’s built his entire campaign tying Pryor to Obama, and since Labor Day, that equation looks like it’s paying off. About 30 percent of Arkansans approve of Obama, and Pryor’s losing independents. Hes also fallen behind Cotton by more than 10 points among white women in the state. That’s a constituency Pryor will need to gain popularity with if he hopes to win in November. This month, Cotton also released an ad defending his contentious vote against the farm bill. Once again, Cotton used it as a chance to attack Obama. As he stands on his family’s farm, Cotton argues “Obama hijacked” the legislation and “turned it into a food stamps bill.” “Career politicians love attaching bad ideas to good ones. Then the bad ideas become law and you pay for it,” Cotton says. Cotton might be spending more time criticizing Obama than he spends attacking the incumbent senator who he will join on the ballot, but that strategy could be the key to retiring the Pryor family name and winning in November. Who Won The Month: Cotton Latest Poll: Cotton 47 percent, Pryor 40 percent ( Rasmussen Reports, Sept. 24-25, 750 Likely Voters.) 6. KANSAS The Senate showdown in the Sunflower State is the standout surprise of the 2014 cycle. In solidly conservative Kansas, there was never expected to be a top-tier Senate competition, but ever since Democrat Chad Taylor dropped out of the contest, Republican Sen. Pat Roberts has been forced to call in GOP reinforcements and halt the rise of independent businessman Greg Orman. In the last week, former Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., his vice presidential pick Sarah Palin and 1996 Republican presidential nominee and former Kansas Sen. Bob Dole have attempted to come to Roberts’s rescue. Yet, Roberts issues run deeper than simply being caught off guard by an increasingly competitive campaign. Roberts is battling the perception that after three-terms in Washington, he has lost touch with Kansans. He no longer owns a home in the state, his political action committee is registered in Florida and a recent poll showed more than 60 percent of voters don’t think he spends enough time in the state. Meanwhile, Orman is running a dogged campaign. Without a party backing him, Orman is relying heavily on big donors and self funding, but at the moment he appears to be reaping the benefits of not being tied in with either party’s baggage. Republicans must try to depict Orman as a Democrat disguised as an independent, but it’s not clear that message is sticking. And while Orman’s been slippery at times about where he stands on issues, the fact it’s a competition at all gives Orman the advantage this month. Who Won September: Orman Latest Poll: Orman 45 percent, Roberts 40 percent ( Rasmussen Reports, Sept. 16-17, 750 likely voters) 7. LOUISIANA “It’s going to be a runoff no matter what,” asserts Donna Brazile, the longtime Democratic strategist who hails from the Pelican State. But the fact that Democrats are talking about an overtime election speaks volumes about Sen. Mary Landrieu’s deteriorating chances there. No one thinks she can win the race outright with a clear majority on Nov. 4; it’s all about surviving for a slog through Thanksgiving to the first Saturday in December, thanks to Louisianas quirky election rules. Even scarier for Landrieu is that she has enjoyed one of the most lopsided outside spending advantages in the country – independent expenditures against Rep. Bill Cassidy, R-La., have topped $6 million – and she is still lagging, without being able to pull more than 47 percent. “She is plain losing whites by more than she should and not doing as well as she needs with white women,” says an energy lobbyist who has access to internal polling. Conservative GOPer Rob Maness looks poised to pull around 10 percent in November, but if there’s extra cash laying around, establishment-oriented groups may be tempted to try to pummel him out of contention next month. But after Nov. 4, Landrieus fate with come down to organization. If the Senate is up for grabs, the powerful Louisiana oil and gas industry will have to make a tough decision on whether to abandon their longtime ally for a new face who could sit in the majority. Who Won September: Cassidy Latest Poll: Cassidy 48 percent, Landrieu 45 percent (Public Policy Polling, Sept. 25-28, 1,141 likely voters)
Posted on: Wed, 01 Oct 2014 13:15:56 +0000
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