The administration of BabatundeFashola has set high standards in Lagos and lifted the bar for those who seek to succeed him. Nigeria now runs a de facto two-party political system with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) emerging from a crowded field that included diverse groups such as Alliance for Democracy (AD), All (Nigeria) Peoples Party (A(N)PP), Action Congress (of Nigeria)-AC(N)), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Labour Party (LP), Democratic People’s Party (DPP), Accord Party (AP), Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA) and All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA). Like at the federal level and in most states of the federation, the battle for Lagos is likely to be a straight fight between PDP and APC. The APC or more correctly its legacy predecessors-AD, AC and ACN have controlled Lagos House since 1999; by next year’s vote an unbroken sixteen year run under the Bola Tinubu banner and the Lagos PDP will be desperate to end its spell in the wilderness of political opposition at this sub-national level. On the other hand, Lagos is the jewel in the Tinubu/APC political crown and given the uncertain prospects of securing the federal prize in Abuja, Tinubu and Fashola will be loath to countenance losing control of Nigeria’s most important state government. When AD/AC/ACN political fortunes declined to just one state under Obasanjo’s ferocious assault, it would have been unlikely that any other state, bar Lagos could have provided the springboard for the remarkable recovery that saw one become six and create the scale that motivated the ACN/CPC/ANPP merger that created APC. The bottom line is that next to the presidency, the state governorship in Lagos will be the most important election in 2015! The PDP field is more narrowly focused than in the APC, perhaps understandably. Even though several others have been mentioned (Dr Ade Dosunmu, former federal maritime agency CEO who was PDP candidate against Fashola in 2011; less well-known names like Tunde Gbadamosi, Sola Kuti, Deji Doherty etc.), the primaries is likely to be a straight fight between Senator Musiliu Obanikoro and Jimi Agbaje (no relation). Obanikoro a former Tinubu acolyte is a fairly typical Nigerian politician-former local government chairman, Lagos State Commissioner for Home Affairs in the Tinubu first term and Senator in the second; he crossed over to the federal ruling party and ran unsuccessfully as PDP candidate in 2007 against Fashola. “Koro” has since served as Ambassador to Ghana, Chairman of the Industrial Training Fund (ITF) and until he resigned to contest the PDP nomination, Minister of State for Defense; he is capable of the rambunctious rough and tumble of Nigerian politics and has occupied a long list of political offices, but is short of noteworthy achievements and visionary contributions; and doesn’t seem to fit the profile of post-Fashola governor most Lagosians seek! Jimi Agbaje is a polar opposite! A charismatic professional pharmacist who has been politically active since return to civilian rule, he projects a different air from that presented by Obanikoro. His 2007 campaign on the DPA platform was brilliant and policy-driven, and it captured the imagination of a large number of Lagosians. Remarkably he retains strong goodwill within political, social, professional and community based groups and has been a leader in different contexts-pharmacy professionals, new generation politicians, socio-cultural and political associations and civil society organisations. He seems to be a unifying force within previously irreconcilable factions of the PDP and appears to offer the PDP its sole realistic option of being competitive in the 2015 gubernatorial contest! His support base cuts across ethnic, religious, generational and partisan lines and it would be interesting to see if PDP members would end the contest before it started by selecting a candidate other than Jimi Agbaje! The APC primary will be very much more competitive. Two formidable political types are involved-Senator Ganiyu Solomon, a grassroots politician and former member of the lower house; and House Speaker Adeyemi Ikuforiji who has just scaled the significant embarrassment presented by EFCC’s corruption trial; there is the candidate regarded as Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s anointed candidate, former Lagos Accountant-General Akinwunmi Ambode; outgoing Works and Infrastructure Commissioner, Dr Obafemi Hamzat a presumed favourite until electoral calculations appeared to favour a Christian and controversy arose over his father’s Obaship position in Ogun State has been a very effective member of the Lagos cabinet; Dr LekePitan, former accomplished health and education commissioner during Tinubu’s governorship is an excellent candidate representing the first Tinubu cabinet; his former colleague Tola Kasali is also reported to be running again; Fashola is said to be backing his former Attorney General, Supo Shasore; and there are several other names touted to be interested in the race-current finance commissioner Ayo Gbeleyi; Attorney General Ade Ipaye; agriculture commissioner and former Tinubu ADC, Prince Gbolahan Lawal; a former assembly man, Lanre Ope and even female representative, Abike Dabiri. It does seem that in the end, the greatest influence on the outcome remains Tinubu and whatever his final preferences are. Both parties will face the challenge of restoring intra-party harmony after the primaries, but the task may be more intricate in the APC.I can barely wait to see which candidates both parties will select so we can focus the debate on whatever policy platforms the parties and their candidates will be presenting to the electorate. At the end of the day, the election may turn on the personalities of the eventual nominees, their policy proposals and their credibility with the people. Opeyemi Agbaje
Posted on: Thu, 23 Oct 2014 21:03:41 +0000
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