The more I study the history of the Ukraine, Crimea and Russia, and considering the show Russia has made extolling Putins manhood and authority to the world, the more Im beginning to think that Putins play to annex Crimea isnt a show of power but rather fear of losing it. Ive only gone back 500 years so far trying to understand the history and relationship and Ive found a couple interesting things, mainly that Russia is at a military disadvantage, in that they dont have any Naval power. After the civil war in Syria, they lost rights to the naval base in Tartus (Thats in Syria btw), and they dont own any other naval bases with warm water access. They rent the naval base in Sevastopol from Ukraine. A while ago, the Ukraine said that they would not renew the agreement with Russia because a Russian naval base in their territory threatened their independence, but they caved under the pressure of a gas hike. For Russia, losing access to Sevastopol means theyre cut off from the Black Sea and they will effectively have no naval power whatsoever. I think that after losing access to the base in Syria, and the threat of losing access to the base in Sevastopol made Russian officials terrified that they would lose military and economic standing - and rightfully so. With Tartus gone, Sevastopol pretty much became the only naval base with access to larger waters and they didnt own that, they rented it. I think the last few months of air time was play was to build up Putin to be some kind of hardliner, and fodder to drum up fear, buying time to lay out the ground work to annex Crimea, making Sevastopol a Russian-owned asset, and solidifying their naval power. Could you imagine what would happen to Russia if the Ukraine, with Crimea as part of it, joined NATO? It would be a nightmare for Russia. Putin has no choice but to try and annex Crimea, but he couldnt do it with military force or risk going to war. I think thats why he wont openly admit that he has troops on the ground - fear of reprisal, so hes playing it dirty. With his people in place as a makeshift government in Crimea, hes rushing through the decree that Crimea is a sovereign and independent state. It would free up Crimea to be annexed by Russia, and making it very difficult for military action to re-take Crimea without it seeming like a breach of international law. If the Ukraine joined NATO before that happened, Crimea would be solidified as part of Ukraine and he would have to pull his troops out or face a united NATO against him. I think that is what hes trying to avoid. Edit: Sanctions in any other case would do a lot of good, but you have a man whos losing authority moving out of fear to keep it. Sanctions wont do much of anything. Putin doesnt care, as long as he gets to retain a military presence in the Black Sea. On the down side for Russia, if this comes down to a fight, the first thing to be taken out is military objectives, meaning Sevastopol will be one of the first targets to get taken out. Its a risky game Putin is playing.
Posted on: Tue, 18 Mar 2014 14:39:18 +0000
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