Thursday, January 22, 2015: Good AFTERNOON :) fellow weather fans! Hope you have had a nice day? There is a reason I keep preaching that snowfall forecast maps should not be posted 2, 3, 4, and 5 days in advance. What is that reason? That it is like throwing darts to get the forecast correct that far in advance of a storm system. Accuracy is more important than being first with a snowfall map. Rarely will you see snowfall maps verify 2 days in advance. Not saying it cant be done...I am saying the odds are never in your favor. Thus, the best approach to a winter system to be patient and analyze the data and trends as the event unfolds. There are snowfall maps floating around that started out showing 2-4 (even 4-6) for parts of western Kentucky. Then the next set of maps showed 1-3 of snow for western Kentucky. Then the last set of maps showed a dusting to maybe 1 of snow for west Kentucky. When making a snowfall forecast you want to ramp up and not down. You ramp up as you become more confident in the forecast. You dont start by telling everyone there will be a foot of snow and then end up with 1 of snow. When forecasters do this it reflects badly on all forecasters. People dont seem to remember who forecasted what. They just remember everyone said it was going to snow. Anyway, that is my soap-box on snowfall forecasts. Which, I usually say 10 times each winter. Forecast update... Lot of clouds today because of the system to our southwest and south. I have been tracking this system for 10 days. And now it is finally progressing through the southlands. Clouds will stick with us tonight and it will be cool, but not bad for January. Friday will bring a chance for light rain (mainly southern half of the region - far southern Illinois - far southeast Missouri, western Kentucky). Highs will be in the upper 30s to near 40. Might see a few flakes mixed in with the rain. Cant rule it out. No accumulation. Friday night - precipitation will come to an end. With colder air filtering into the area you might see the light rain rain/snow mix change briefly to light snow over some of our eastern counties. Little accumulation expected. If there were to be a dusting or so that would be our far eastern/southeastern counties. No real change on my thinking from yesterday. That would include areas near the Land Between the Lakes - east/northeast. If you are traveling further east in Kentucky then you should check the latest forecast since that area may end up with a bit more precipitation than our local area. Friday night would be your time of concern. Saturday will be dry with highs in the 40s. Sunday - another system moves in from the north. This one will track well to our northeast. That places us on the semi-warm side of the low. That means a few showers will be possible. Highs will be well into the 40s on Sunday. Colder by Monday. Bigger shot of cold air possible the end of January into first part of February. Will be watching yet another southern storm as we approach the beginning of February.
Posted on: Thu, 22 Jan 2015 20:59:47 +0000
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