Todays First Read Three things we’ve learned about Hillary Clinton’s emerging campaign… 1) She isn’t running away from Obama; in fact, she’s going to be more connected to him than ever… 2) She’s likely to face little to no real primary challenge… 3) How does she distance herself from what’s looking like a growing list of has-been candidates?... GOP backlash to Romney builds… Throwback Thursday: 2016 contenders edition… Does Romney attend Steve King’s upcoming cattle call in Iowa?... Immigration battle turns to the Senate… GOP House and Senate begin holding two-day retreat in Hershey, PA… And is Kamala Harris going to have a freer ride than we all expected? From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Carrie Dann. FIRST THOUGHTS. *** Three things we’ve learned about Hillary Clinton’s emerging campaign: The Republican presidential field has received most of the recent attention -- and deservedly so, especially with Mitt Romney appearing to make another run. But in the last few days, we’ve also learned some important things about Hillary Clinton’s budding presidential campaign. First, by grabbing Obama’s chief pollster (Joel Benenson) and media consultant (Jim Margolis), Clinton has decided to enlist key parts of Obama’s campaign 2008-2012 team, discarding the folks who ran her polling and media in ’08. And she isn’t only grabbing Benenson -- she’s lured the other part of Obama’s polling/analytics organization (John Anzalone and David Binder), the Washington Post reported. When you add the fact that John Podesta is leaving the Obama White House to serve as a liaison between the Clinton campaign and White House (as well as to handle the Clinton Old Guard), it’s pretty easy to conclude that Clinton won’t be running away from Obama. In fact, it’s looking like she will be more connected to him than ever. And the people she’s hiring are the best-equipped campaign folks to reassemble the Obama-voter coalition. *** It’s not going to be Gore vs. Bradley or even Bush vs. Dole: Two, we’ve learned that Clinton most likely won’t receive any real Democratic primary challenge, allowing her to focus on a general-election campaign much earlier than everyone else. The final tell here came earlier this week when Elizabeth Warren once again said she wasn’t running -- and this time did so in more than just the present tense. Fortune magazine: So are you going to run for president? Warren: No Yes, groups like MoveOn are still pining for Warren (and they’re continuing to hire staffers for a draft campaign). Yes, Warren still wants to use her visibility and following to influence and pressure her party. And, yes, Democrats like Jim Webb, Martin O’Malley, and maybe even independent Bernie Sanders appear to be running or could run. But let’s be realistic here: Any challenge that Clinton gets probably won’t look like Gore vs. Bradley in 2000 or even Bush vs. Dole in 1988. Just look at all of the polls among Democratic voters out there. And if Warren’s not running, that allows Clinton the option to sit back and wait much longer than Republicans in the GOP field will. *** How does Clinton distance herself from what’s looking like a growing list of has-been candidates? And three, the growing realization that 2016 is going to be the year of the political re-run or spinoff -- you’ve got Romney, a Bush, a Paul, Huckabee, Santorum, and of course Clinton -- is a potential problem for her. When it was just Jeb running, that appeared to neutralize maybe her chief weakness in that she’s not a fresh face or name to lead the country into a new decade. But when it’s a growing cast of the same stale characters (or their relatives), it’s automatic to lump Clinton into that group. So she has to find a way to distance herself from that. Running as a historic candidate -- trying to be the first female president -- is a way to do that. But this could very well be her biggest challenge in 2016. *** GOP backlash to Romney builds: There’s even MORE Republican backlash to Mitt Romney’s likely third presidential bid. Politico: “A Republican backlash against Mitt Romney that had been simmering for days boiled over on Wednesday as conservatives across the GOP spectrum panned the prospect of another presidential bid by the former Massachusetts governor and two-time loser on the national stage. Leading the anti-Romney charge was the voice of the GOP establishment wing, the Wall Street Journal editorial page. ‘The question the former Massachusetts Governor will have to answer,’ the newspaper wrote, ‘is why he would be a better candidate than he was in 2012… The answer is not obvious.’ The Journal’s owner, News Corp. Chairman Rupert Murdoch, piled on: ‘He had his chance, he mishandled it, you know? I thought Romney was a terrible candidate.’” More: “Even Sarah Palin took a shot. ‘We need new energy,’ the former vice presidential nominee told “Inside Edition.’ ‘We need new blood. We need new ideas.’” *** Throwback Thursday: 2016 contenders edition: Mitt Romney’s first presidential run started back in February 2007. (For context, that was just a month after most Americans started hearing the word “iPhone” for the first time.) For better or worse, that’s a lot of time and experience running for the White House. So one of us(!) took a look back at what all the major 2016 candidates were doing back when Romney announced for the first time. Some, like Rand Paul and Elizabeth Warren, weren’t even in public office. Others, like Gov. Scott Walker, were dealing with the nitty-gritty issues of local governance. And Rubio, Cruz and Jindal were barely old enough to legally be president. *** Does Romney attend Steve King’s upcoming cattle call in Iowa? Romney, of course, speaks Friday night at 10:00 pm ET at the RNC winter meeting in San Diego. (And today, Ben Carson and Scott Walker address the confab.) Yet for us, the question is if Romney ends up attending Rep. Steve King’s cattle call in Iowa on Jan. 24. Remember, Romney used the issue of immigration to distinguish himself from McCain in ’08 and Rick Perry in ’12. And it seems to be the obvious way he could run against Jeb Bush in ’16. As we’ve pointed out time and again, immigration -- especially the “A”-word, amnesty -- is one of the most powerful attacks in intra-party GOP fights. Just ask Eric Cantor. *** Immigration battle turns to the Senate: Speaking of immigration, as NBC’s Alex Moe reported yesterday, the GOP-controlled House passed its bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security by a 236-190 vote, and it contained two noteworthy amendments: 1) an effort to rollback Obama’s executive action on immigration from late last year, and 2) an effort to rollback his DACA action from 2012. The House’s passage shouldn’t be surprising; Republicans have the numbers. What will be key is how the legislation fares in the GOP-controlled Senate, where Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will need 60 votes. *** Wanna get away? Republicans hold joint retreat: By the way, House and Senate Republicans are holding their two-day retreat in Hershey, PA. *** Is Kamala Harris going to have a freer ride than we all expected? Lastly, after Elizabeth Warren quickly endorsed Kamala Harris in the race to replace retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), we’ve got to ask: Is Harris going to have a freer ride than we all expected? Now remember, it’s a LONG time before the filing deadline. And all it takes is for one very wealthy person (Tom Steyer?) to jump into the race to make things interesting. But the conventional wisdom was that this was going to be a JAM-PACKED field to succeed Boxer, and that doesn’t look as likely today. Click here to sign up for First Read emails. Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone. Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. Follow us @chucktodd, @mmurraypolitics, @carrienbcnews OBAMA AGENDA: Calling for paid leave President Obama will announce Thursday that he is directing federal agencies to give their employees up to six weeks of paid leave after the birth or adoption of a child, a benefit he wants to extend to all American workers, writes the New York Times. NBCs Kelly ODonnell and Kristen Welker confirm that four top officials at the Secret Service have been asked to leave their posts. The Wall Street Journal writes: More than three months of U.S. airstrikes in Syria have failed to prevent Islamic State militants from expanding their control in that country, according to U.S. and independent assessments, raising new concerns about President Barack Obama ’s military strategy in the Middle East. David Cameron is pressuring Obama on encryption issues, the Wall Street Journal reports. British Prime Minister David Cameron plans to lobby President Barack Obama this week to more publicly criticize U.S. technology companies, such as Facebook Inc., that offer encrypted communications that can’t be unscrambled even with a court order, two people familiar with the matter said. From the New York Times: Disputed Claims Over Qaeda Role in Paris Attacks POLITICO writes of the State of the Union: [A]s for the State of the Union tradition of unveiling big announcements for a year-ahead agenda, Obama’s done with that. The country’s been done with that for a while, aides say, and the White House has finally caught up. They believe they’ve now redefined the State of the Union model, not just for this year and next but for the next couple of presidents at least.” CONGRESS: Foiled plot The AP: A 20-year-old Ohio mans Twitter posts sympathizing with Islamic terrorists led to an undercover FBI operation and the mans arrest on charges that he plotted to blow up the U.S. Capitol and kill government officials. Christopher Lee Cornell, also known as Raheel Mahrus Ubaydah, told an FBI informant they should wage jihad, and showed his plans for bombing the Capitol and shooting people, according to a criminal complaint filed in federal court in Ohio Wednesday. The FBI said Cornell expressed his support for the Islamic State. From NBC News: The Ohio man accused of plotting an attack on the U.S. Capitol became interested in anarchy during high school and would make radical comments about the government, a former schoolmate told NBC News. Reuters reports: A federal judge in Texas is set to hear arguments on Thursday in a lawsuit brought by two dozen states that seeks to block Obama administration efforts to reduce the threat of deportation for millions of undocumented immigrants. The Washington Post: An internal CIA panel concluded in a report released Wednesday that agency employees should not be punished for their roles in secretly searching computers used by Senate investigators, a move that was denounced by lawmakers last year as an assault on congressional oversight and a potential breach of the Constitution. Per a release: “Freedom Partners Chamber of Commerce is announcing the launch of the new Plan For Economic Growth, a roadmap for individuals and organizations devoted to fiscal responsibility and a smaller, more effective government.” OFF TO THE RACES: Christie -- odd man out? CHRISTIE: POLITICO characterizes Chris Christie as the odd man out for the 2016 GOP race. From the New York Times: There is no great rush to wade into the Republican primary, Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey assures them. There’s enough money to go around, his advisers and allies explain. The approach is intended to soothe anxious allies who are fretting over the sudden emergence of two potent rivals, Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney, and indications from donors that they are under pressure to pick a candidate now. CRUZ: From The Hill: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who repeatedly clashed with GOP leaders in the last Congress, has not been asked to return as vice chairman of grassroots outreach for the Senate Republican campaign arm. O’MALLEY: Martin O’Malley will give paid speeches after he leaves office, the Washington Post reports. “He characterized the decision as part of an effort to make ‘my family as secure as I can for the next few months as we weigh a big decision.’” PAUL: Rand Paul defended his sometimes aggressive style during an interview with NH1. I try never to start it. I just finish it, he said. Paul also riled up Democrats for suggesting that many people who receive disability benefits are gaming the system. PERRY: In his final address to the legislature, outgoing Gov. Rick Perry is expected to emphasize bipartisanship. There is room for different voices, for disagreement, he plans to say, according to prepared remarks provided to The Texas Tribune. Compromise is not a dirty word if it moves Texas forward. ROMNEY: Mitt Romney is beginning to assemble a campaign team, and is turning to a former aide with ties to Chris Christie to work as a liaison with the media as the 2012 GOP presidential nominee takes steps to once again run for the White House,” writes CNN. SANTORUM: Foster Friess, a wealthy conservative donor whose funds propelled Rick Santorum’s 2012 presidential campaign, will host a private gathering in Scottsdale, Ariz., this weekend to rally support behind Santorum’s potential 2016 bid. And from around the country… CALIFORNIA: Another Democrat looking at that Senate seat: Rep. Xavier Becerra. And Elizabeth Warren has endorsed Kamala Harris. MICHIGAN: “The Republican National Committees top officers formally censured Michigan member Dave Agema today for what they called harmful rhetoric and demanded his resignation,” reports the Detroit Free Press. OHIO: The dates for the Republican National Convention in Cleveland are set for July 18-21. SOUTH CAROLINA: The State: Gov. Nikki Haley used her second inaugural address Wednesday to press S.C. lawmakers to pass ethics reform in the wake of recent scandals. Haley did not name anyone. But her speech on the State House steps came on the same day that former state Sen. Robert Ford, D-Charleston, pleaded guilty to misconduct in office and three months after former House Speaker Bobby Harrell, R-Charleston, resigned amid charges of misusing campaign money.
Posted on: Thu, 15 Jan 2015 14:13:51 +0000
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