TradersPulse 29-01-14 Yesterdays look back EURUSD Tuesday EURUSD traded within a 61 range. By the end of daily business EURUSD had closed 3 pips lower and within the previous day’s range. A Longer term view The breach of the 1.3699 level means that the price action has now traded above the isolated swing high of the 14th January. This price activity effectively means that the daily trend on a swing bases has change direction from down to up. The trend bias on the daily chart is now in gear with the positive trend that is to be found on the weekly chart. This move higher was from an area of Fibonacci support as the price action sliced through the prior broken up trend line and also through both averages. It would now appear that the weekly bullish trend has won its argument with the bearish daily trend. The logical conclusion to the recent price action would be of course for EURUSD to take out the 2013 high by trading above the 1.3893 level that was printed on the 27th December. However there is some distance to go before this target can be achieved and it would not be unexpected to see downside and sideways corrective trading to occur along the way up. Special attention as always must be given to how the price action deals with a possible pull back to the 20th January swing low or yet to be established new swing lows as a breach of these areas of support will turn the daily trend back to negative. Back to today Yesterday EURUSD traded in a very tight range as the price action consolidated above the prior broken trend line and moving averages. The current price action seems to forming a bullish falling wedge at the highs of last Thursday’s move. I will today be monitoring the price action for potential continuation of up move and a retest of the 1.3699 level. Alternatively after such a strong up move there is possibility that EURUSD trades in a down to sideways corrective manner into the direction of trend line support. GBPUSD Tuesday GBPUSD traded within an 89 range. By the end of daily business GBPUSD had closed 5 pips lower and within the previous day’s range. A Longer term view The breach of the 10th January isolated swing high that can be found at the 1.6517 level has reversed the daily down trend to up. The daily down trend is now effectively in gear with the uptrend that is found on the weekly time frame. This move has followed a bounce off moving averages, trend line and Fibonacci support. Our researched team identified the 1.6604 level being 2nd January isolated swing high as the next possible price target. This target was duly delivered by last Thursday’s trade. On Friday after initially trading higher GBPUSD broke down aggressively and closed near its low for the day. However this move had traded back down into an area of support which comprises of the 8 and 34 period daily moving averages, trend line, Fibonacci and channel bottom support. From this area of support GBPUSD has once again managed to bounce higher but has yet to follow through with the move by taking out Friday’s high at 1.6668. Back to today Yesterday was a small range day for GBPUSD as it traded at the moving averages. I will today be monitoring the price action to see if GBPUSD can continue trade above Friday’s high of 1.6668. Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain a move higher during today’s trade there is a possibility that GBPUSD trades back down to 8 period moving averages and maybe lower to the area of trend line and channel bottom support. USDJPY Tuesday USDJPY traded within a 78 range. By the end of daily business USDJPY had closed 39 pips higher and within the previous day’s range. A Longer term view USDJPY has been in a daily downtrend since the breach of the 6th January swing low. The price action followed this move by trading deep into Fibonacci support and closing beneath a minor channel bottom. The outcome of this negative price action was for USDJPY to also trade beneath the 102.85 level being the 13th January swing low. This move is further confirmation that the daily down trend is intact. However with the weekly time frame continuing to trend in a broad positive bias there is currently a conflict around the general trend direction between the weekly and daily time frames. As the weekly time frame is viewed the stronger of the two time frames, I am for the time being viewing the current negative activity on the daily time frame as a controlled correction which could ultimately offer possible buying opportunities. Notwithstanding this the weekly close beneath the 8 period weekly moving averages does potentially highlight that a broader downside correction maybe about to play out. Back to today Yesterday USDJPY traded in an average range that saw the price action continue its move higher off Fibonacci support. This morning USDJPY has open positively and is now testing the 8 period moving averages. I will today be monitoring the price action to see the USDJPY can breach this average and possibly trade up to the 34 period moving averages. Alternatively if the price action fails to sustain higher prices there is potential that USDJPY takes out yesterday’s low and trade to the 101.75 level being the 27th January swing low. USDCHF Tuesday USDCHF traded within a 56 range. By the end of daily business USDCHF had closed 9 pips higher and within the previous day’s range. A Longer term view A move beneath the 0.8986 level breached the prior daily swing low of the 13th January. This has resulted in the daily trend turning negative and now coming back into line with weekly down trend. The move down has come off an area of Fibonacci resistance. However support has come into the market for USDCHF over the past few sessions which could indicate that the price action is attempting to print a weekly higher low swing. Back to today Yesterday’s USDCHF attempted to trade above Friday’s high only for it to close within that day’s range. This morning USDCHF has opened positively and is attempting to break above both averages. I will today be monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can trade and close above yesterdays high. Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see USDCHF trade back into the range of Friday’s candle. dlvr.it/4pMyqj
Posted on: Wed, 29 Jan 2014 08:51:20 +0000
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