Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7: Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 091503 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 1500 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 10 18 15 16 23 TROP DEPRESSION 1 3 30 38 20 22 30 TROPICAL STORM 84 67 50 41 56 54 43 HURRICANE 15 29 11 4 9 8 4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 14 26 9 3 8 7 3 HUR CAT 2 1 3 2 X 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 1 1 X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 35KT 35KT 45KT 45KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 3(23) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 12(28) 2(30) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 9(23) 2(25) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 4(32) X(32) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 3(30) 1(31) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 6(25) 1(26) X(26) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 4( 4) 35(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 32(32) 41(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONCE 34 2 50(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) PONCE 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JUAN 34 2 24(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SAINT THOMAS 34 5 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT CROIX 34 17 10(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) SAINT MAARTEN 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBUDA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AVES 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) AVES 50 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) AVES 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DOMINICA 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) MARTINIQUE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARTINIQUE 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/091503.shtml
Posted on: Tue, 09 Jul 2013 15:16:11 +0000
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