Tuesday, 13 January, 2015 Forecasts for Ireland ADVANCE ALERT -- snow may become fairly widespread at times today and tonight, amounts will be generally 1-3 cm and at lower elevations snow will probably melt, but higher roads may become icy at times -- very strong winds are anticipated on Wednesday and overnight into early Thursday. The first wave will hit the south and west coasts with gale force southerlies on Wednesday afternoon, gusts to 120 km/hr are possible. A second wave will be more concentrated on northwest and west-central coasts and gusts to 140 km/hr are possible. There is a 25% risk that these values could be exceeded by 20 km/hr which would turn isolated or moderate damage into more substantial damage impacts. TODAY ... Windy and very cold with outbreaks of sleet, wet snow and (at coastal elevations) rain. Highs 2-6 C. Winds SW 50-80 km/hr will add more of a chill, feeling like zero to -3 C. A few sunny breaks may develop in eastern counties. TONIGHT ... Windy with intervals of snow or sleet, cold with lows near -1 C to about +2 C in some coastal areas. Winds backing more to south towards morning, 50-80 km/hr. Icy roads where untreated. WEDNESDAY ... Stormy at times as winds increase from south around mid-day to reach 80-120 km/hr, periods of rain becoming heavy, some embedded thunderstorms. Highs near 8 C. WEDNESDAY NIGHT into THURSDAY MORNING will continue very windy after perhaps a brief lull in some parts of the south and east, with the strongest winds now felt from Clare to Donegal and some distance inland, westerly around 90-140 km/hr. Some tree damage is likely. Elsewhere, wind speeds will be 80-120 km/hr but lower in some sheltered inland districts. Rain may turn to sleet, hail or snow as temperatures gradually fall off from about 6 C in the evening to 2 C by morning. THURSDAY will continue windy and cold with passing wintry showers, some accumulations of snow on hills mainly, and winds WNW 50-80 km/hr for most, after a morning peak still around 110 km/hr in the north. Highs 4-6 C. FRIDAY to SUNDAY will be a cold, generally bright period with passing wintry showers, some risk of accumulating snows on hills, and sharp morning frosts, lows near -2 C and highs 3-7 C. This may lead to some poor driving conditions in parts of the inland north in particular and higher areas elsewhere. MONDAY could see a brief return to rain and near normal temperatures of about 7 C then turning colder again with mixed wintry precipitation ... FURTHER OUTLOOK ... then, the Atlantic appears to be losing a battle with the arctic for control of this sector of the atmosphere and by next week, colder air masses from Scandinavia may be trying to push back the frontal zone and direct cold, possibly snow-producing northeast winds towards Ireland. The chances are greater that this will reach Britain and perhaps stall for a time around east Ulster leaving other parts of Ireland in slightly above freezing transitional air masses with mixed sleety precipitation, but if the fronts do eventually push far enough south and west, snow could develop. Different models have different rates of forward movement for this colder air so trying to specify what day(s) it might snow is difficult, the chances seem to increase moving forward. For Britain would expect similar outcomes, on Wednesday night the south will see gales from the southwest and early Thursday the westerly storm force winds will strike parts of north-central England and southern Scotland with gusts perhaps over 150 km/hr. As mentioned, if and when the colder air masses intrude from the northeast, snow will be more likely to begin first in eastern Britain from the North Sea. In North America the weather pattern is generally quiet and cold now, with remnants of yesterdays mixed precip moving out of New England and eastern Canada. The developing storm for Ireland is already off the east coast of Newfoundland now. Meanwhile, my local weather was cloudy and mild with fog and light rain, highs near 7 C. WATCH FOR UPDATES AS NEW GUIDANCE IS ASSESSED FOR THE STRONG WIND EVENT TOMORROW. WILL UPDATE BRIEFLY LATE AFTERNOON, EVEN IF NO CHANGES IN FORECAST. -- Peter ODonnell and your forecasting team for IWO ________________________________________________
Posted on: Tue, 13 Jan 2015 07:41:02 +0000
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