Two waves and a ripple... A marathon endeavour of mine has finally come to an end. I collected facts, figures and views online, through social media, various poll surveys/analysis and interviews in key Indian states facing elections in the coming days. The results are mind-boggling! The country is witnessing, for the first time, an extraordinarily complex election battle unseen anywhere on the planet. Multiple issues of national and local importance, extreme polarisation of views based on religion, caste, sub-caste, region and language, are exercising the electorate. Intelligentsia, business elite, upper and middle classes are sore over endemic corruption, poor infrastructure, lack of development and progressive economic policies, bureaucratic red tape, licence raj and growing security concerns. Poor masses are grappling with dearth of basic necessities, rising prices of commodities, unemployment, inflation, soaring education and health costs, widespread corruption at all levels of government and the ever exploiting employers. Women, even after millennia of passive and active struggle, are still waiting for empowerment, equal rights and pay and security. Hindu voters (80%+ of population) who have mainly voted on caste lines for decades are increasingly backing BJPs Backward Class candidate Narendra Modi for his perceived nationalism, development policies in his home state and pro-business vision. Every attack on him over Gujarat riots of 2002 fetches him extra votes, mainly due to unprecedented polarisation. The second largest community after the Hindus are Muslims (13.5%+) majority of whom have faced second class treatment in their own motherland. Disenchanted with Congress, they are now gravitating towards other parties, splitting their vital votes in the bargain. Christians too are exploring options other than Congress. Sikhs back their Punjab party and BJP. Other religions and sects are split between various parties. There are two distinct waves sweeping the country - one in favour of Modi and the other against Gandhi dynasty-run Congress. A third wave, more of a ripple, is seen in and around Delhi and key cities, in favour of Aam Aadmi Party. The growing ripple has gathered momentum despite obstacles and has the capacity to turn into a tsunami. There are a few other mini-waves in states like Tamil Nadu, Telengana, Odisa and West Bengal in favour of AIADMK, TRS, BJD and Trinamool respectively. The truly secular and ideology-focussed AAP, a peoples movement against corruption and for good governance, which was fast turning into a revolution, lost its steam after coming to power in Delhi Assembly. It alienated its key support base of intelligentsia through unwarranted gimmicks, knee jerk decisions, lack of moral standards, unwillingness to conform to rule of law and finally, resigning. However, AAPs street-style campaign and flood of allegations targeting top business houses and leaders, continues to gather followers among the poor sections and middle classes hungry for change. The so-called secular Congress is facing a nationwide rout, except a few traditional pockets. Its allegedly riddled with scandals, corruption charges, scams and non-performance. Estimated seats key parties are likely to win are :- AAP - 45-55, AIADMK - 15-20, BJD - 10-15, BJP - 295-305, BSP - 5-10, Congress - 45-50, DMK - 5-10, JDS - 4-7, JDU - 3-6, Left parties - 20-25, LJP - 3-5, NC - 3-5, NCP - 3-7, RJD - 3-6, RLD - 3-5, SAD - 6-10, SP - 5-10, Shiv Sena - 5-8, TDP - 7-10, Trinamool - 30-35, TRS - 8-12, YSR - 10 and Others - the rest. We are all entitled to our analysis and predictions. Please feel free to offer your comments.
Posted on: Wed, 02 Apr 2014 16:12:59 +0000
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