.UPDATE... SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS HAD FORMED ACROSS WEST TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EAST OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WAS MOVING EAST OUT OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AND ASSISTING IN THE LIFT PROCESS. WITH SEVERAL LIFTING MECHANISMS AND UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WE EXPECT THESE CLUSTERS TO EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO AN MCS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WAS NOTED ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING AND FROM RECENT AIRCRAFT AMDAR SOUNDINGS EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS...SO WE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS THIS EVENING. YOUNG...STEPHENS AND EASTLAND COUNTIES WILL SEE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH STORMS NEAR ABILENE MOVING 40-45 MPH. THESE COUNTIES WILL BE UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 5 AM. THE STORM CLUSTER NORTHWEST OF LUBBOCK WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE SAME SPEED. THE RESULTANT MCS SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME AS THEY MARCH EAST ACROSS ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE WILDCARD IN HOW FAR EAST SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS WILL BE IF THE CAP CAN COMPLETELY ERODE AND ITS UNCERTAIN IF THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET. NEVERTHELESS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD STILL BE A THREAT EVEN WITH ELEVATED STORMS. ACTIVITY COULD REMAIN STRONG WELL INTO SUNRISE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CONTINUING.
Posted on: Thu, 06 Jun 2013 03:54:04 +0000
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