Union impossible Minsk summit , where the role of gracious hosts were the leaders of the Customs Union, Putin , Lukashenko and Nazarbayev , and as the guests were confused by the rulers of Ukraine, Armenia , Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan , ended up with quite a spectacular sight . At least bureaucratic sense. It is confirmed that the Customs Union (CU ) in 2015, will be called a magnificently - the Eurasian Economic Union ( EAEC ) , and the structure with a similar name EurAsEC (Eurasian Economic Community) will cease to exist on the occasion of the exhaustion of its tasks . Result serious. Hundreds of officers have to change seats from one to the other seats . Three active participant CU rally more closely . Members of the abolished EEC - Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan , as well as Armenia , consisting in this structure as Observer countries - have given hope to join the Customs Union and the EAEC . And another evrazesovskoy Watcher , Ukraine, in a very dignified expressions , does not similar to the recent threats of August , promised that the punishment for the European choice and if it will , it is only after serious thought and careful consideration of all the pros and against . And now about the same event - on the merits. The leaders of the former Soviet Union gathered in the moment, truly critical . However, not for the life of their peoples, and only for the Kremlin utopian undertaking at least partially recreate the Soviet Union. Utopia , so many years maintained afloat , suddenly collapsed because the agreement on association of Ukraine with the EU will be signed in November with a probability close to 100 %. To properly understand this act , it is necessary to see that his political burden is much more than an economic one. In economic terms, this is just a convention on mutual and gradual abolition of trade tariffs . A full member of the EU Ukrain during the life of the present generation can not be known - too big its backlog for all positions . Contrary to the horrors painted the portrait advocates glazevskoy school , a serious impact on the Russian- Ukrainian economic relations is the associate membership will not be able to provide . Unless, of course , Moscow will not block trade between political reasons . And it just might . The Soviet Union without Ukraine is unthinkable . It was clear to everyone for another quarter of a century ago , when the Federal Republic began its drift from the USSR. Similarly, Ukraine is impossible without any new surrogate of the Soviet Union , as Whatever you call it - EAEC , TS or EAEC . Without it, its something else entirely. And here in Minsk gathered and tried to decide what can happen now . By consensus was not reached . If we reject the politically correct roundness , the Kremlin sees in the vehicle, as well as in the future EAEC , an alliance of Russia with a group of younger partners who recognize its political dependence, and receiving in return a variety of financial compensation . Economic benefits to Russia such cooperation does not imply , by definition , but it creates an image of a strong power surrounded tenderly gaze at her vassals. The more such, so this picture is convincing. So welcome to the CU and EAEC Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - a good thing , even if it is burdensome for the Russian treasury. One trouble . Moscow look fondly on both the existing fellow at CU - and Lukashenko and Nazarbayev - absolutely not located. Especially now . What immediately and opened in Minsk. Ukraines actions sharply raised their value in their own eyes , and have suggested that the hour of thoroughly poshantazhirovat older brother. Attack came on several fronts . First, on the economic front . After all, the so-called single economic space is completely incompatible with the practiced hand-operated with us and target the interests of various lobbying firms and organizations. It is clear that Nazarbayev Lukashenko demanded not only on paper but in reality to let products of their countries to the Russian market , and simultaneously minimize all kinds of restrictive and prohibitive measures . Seriously go to meet them would be to abolish all the existing economic system . The only truly convincing answer to these claims would open the market to offer in exchange for their renunciation of all hidden and explicit incentives and subsidies. But that would be to speak the language of the real economic interests . And this is equally not prepared neither Moscow nor Minsk or Astana . So it was only one thing - to dismiss Gennady Onishchenko as a figure that is incompatible with whatever was mutual trade. But seriously lighten the mood this pawn sacrifice , of course, could not. The second focus of attack younger brothers led to calls , on the one hand, stop bully Ukraine, and the other - to slow down involvement in the TC troubled countries such as Tajikistan and others. It is clear that Kazakhstan and Belarus in particular there is no reason to take offense to the Ukraine and to refuse to trade with it. It is even more clear that the old partners of Moscow completely unwilling to share its benefits with the usual new and extremely poor candidates for accession to the Customs Union. There was nothing to cover , and Putin had to promise that new members of the CU special privileges will be created. But the fact of the matter is that the Customs Union - to put it mildly , is not quite what it is. And it is held together not so much by mutual trade , for which supposedly created, namely the special privileges torn from Moscow individually. With regard to trade , all the countries of Central Asia and is now closed to China stronger than Russia . At the end of 2012 China - the first trading partner for Kyrgyzstan (almost half of its turnover), and Tajikistan (a third of turnover), and even to Kazakhstan (a quarter of turnover) . Today Russia needs most Central Asian countries as a market for the local labor force, as well as financial sponsor . For Armenia - as a provider of investment and defender against external threats. For Belarus - as a source of cheap fuel . Here everyone has their own interest , and not the one that is officially registered in the integration documents. But beyond all this in Minsk has resurfaced a flood of ideas , quite exotic . Nazarbayev suddenly offered to take the CU Turkey. Lukashenko added to the list of Vietnam and New Zealand. Putin , willy- nilly involved in the game , according to a keen interest in TC our great friend , the Prime Minister of India Manmohan Singh . Certainly , none of these powers did not even think to join the Customs Union. They live in a completely different economic coordinates. But the interest of the Customs Union, they do have . They want to open it for free , duty-free importation of the goods . Advantage or disadvantage of each of these hypothetical free trade agreements deserved serious professional study . And beyond that , even with excellent flexibility of mind. For example , those trading relationships that Ukraine is going to establish with the EU, Turkey with him for a long time already has. But Ukraine is now threatening to separate from the free trade regime with the vehicle, and Turkey , on the contrary , this mode is almost presented on a platter with a border. One surprising turns out - unless, of course , to make such searchlights seriously. But to do that is just not necessary. Nazarbaev and Lukashenko in a specific form just give Putin understand that the ideal vehicle and EAEC - this union , in which all sorts of major countries and, therefore , there is someone one who will dispose of all . Well, if this ideal is unattainable , then Moscow and even in this narrow part of the TC - EAEC too must not dispose of . And as an additional object lesson Lukashenko continues and develops extremely humiliating for Russia potash scandal . Despite the surrender of Moscow, despite its agreement to send the general director of BRIC Vladislav Baumgertner custody , if only hostage returned from Minsk in Russia , the head of a friendly power still does not give it , demanding more and a couple of billion dollars as compensation for their loss . Not only that . The other day, spread rumors that the Belarusian secret services tried to kidnap one of Moscow who fled there executives Belaruskaliy . This is the real life of the Customs Union , despite the evidence portrayed as friendly powers integration of markets for co- prosperity. So who is to blame ? Those with a great advantage for themselves exploits Kremlin myth of the new Soviet Union? Or is it those who are behind this myth continues to cling to outmoded ? Sergei Selin Details : rosbalt.ru/business/2013/10/28/1193429.html
Posted on: Mon, 28 Oct 2013 20:09:15 +0000
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