WHO IS THE NEXT UPND PRESIDENT???? From Mathematical point of view and electoral demographic dynamics it appears PF is headed for a 50%+1 victory. Who then takes over the UPND presidency from HH? HH has given his best shots in this election than ever before, making it his most expensive campaign ever. Could it be his last attempt. Could it be a sign that its his last attempt also following the fact that the National Management Committe adopted him without subjecting to the Convention? The biggest obstacle to UPND’s path to Victory is not tribalism but the Electoral Demographic Map. Its indisputable fact that in this election either PF or the UPND will win the presidential polls. Here is an assessment of the probability of a victory by the UPND. The current 2011 voter’s roll is composed of 9 electoral provinces with a total number of voters registered standing at 5,167,154. The largest two electoral blocks, Copperbelt (with 845,569) and Lusaka (with 772,458) have a combined total of 1.6 million, accounting for 31% of the total registered voters equivalent to 31% of the combined total of the four electorally smallest blocks, these being (from smallest to largest), North-Western (6.0%), Western (7.6%), Luapula (7.9%) and Central at (9.3%) percent. One can do very well in these four voting blocks but still lose the national election if one does not perform well in the two urban blocks. The largest five voting blocks (3,565,872 voters) account for 69% of the total voters registered. These are Copperbelt (16%), Lusaka (15%), Northern (13%), Eastern (13%) and Southern (12%). No presidential candidate can win an election without out-rightly winning at least two of these five electoral blocks plus coming second in another. Rupiah Banda, who narrowly won the 2008 election, is the only exception. He won convincingly in one province but came an impressive second in the remaining four. An analysis of the numbers reveals that no presidential candidate can win an election in Zambia unless they can obtain at least thirty-five (35%) percent of the vote as a combined total in this key demographic block The statistical results from 2006 to 2011 show that to win the presidential elections, a candidate must get at least 40% of the national vote. This closely mirrors the combined 35% in the five largest voting blocks. President Michael Sata failed to win the presidential elections in 2006 and 2008 because he was unable to perform well enough in the five provinces. In addition, he failed to reach 40% of the national vote until the 2011 election. He eventually got into office by winning three of the five provinces with large margins and coming second in another province. The founding president of the UPND Anderson Mazoka failed to win the fragmented presidential vote in 2001 because although he won Southern Province and did relatively well in Lusaka, he lamentably underperformed in Copperbelt (12%), Eastern (4%) and Northern Provinces (5%). The failure to win by Anderson Mazoka was regardless of the fact that he performed very well in Western, North-Western and relatively well in Central province. Those who blamed his loss on electoral rigging simply have no empirical evidence. However, the arithmetic can indicate the path of loss quite convincingly. This is the same reason that the current President of the UPND, Hakainde Hichilema has been unable to win in a presidential poll thus far. He has consistently underperformed in four of the five big provinces. For example, his total tally in the 2011 presidential elections was as follows: Northern (0.8%), Eastern (3.3%), Copperbelt (3.6%), Lusaka (11.3%) and Southern (71.4%). The average percentage of the UPND in this key demographic block is 18%, a significant distance from the minimum 35% that is required for you to be in contention in a presidential win. In addition, the national minimum total of 40% is even further. The required percentage change for the UPND for them to reach the minimum threshold is a massive task, especially if one considers the upward gravitational pull that will be required on the Copperbelt, Northern and Eastern provinces. Taking into consideration current trending data, it is highly unlikely that the UPND will make any significant gains on the Copperbelt, Northern & Eastern provinces. Even if the UPND were able to double its performance in Lusaka to say 22%, in the absence of significant improvements in the Copperbelt, Northern & Eastern Provinces, reaching the minimum 35% average threshold in the five provinces will be a tall order. The capacity for the UPND to double and reach 22% in Lusaka will have to be weighted and compared to its past trend performance in the last four presidential elections in this province: 2001 (31%), 2006 (21%), 2008 (15%) and 2011 (11%). This is a declining trend in Lusaka for past 4 presidential elections. Even if we were to give UPND the benefit of doubt that they have the capacity to reverse this trend in Lusaka for the 2015 elections, the upward trajectory of Mr. Hichilema would have to significantly surpass all his past performances. It will be a tall order for the UPND to reverse this trend and double their 2011 performance from 11% to 22% in Lusaka. On the national level, for the UPND to jump from a national performance level of 18% in 2011 to even reach the MMD’s 36% would be a MIRACULOUS PERFORMANCE. This would entail that Mr. Hichilema would surpass the 27% national total obtained by Mr. Anderson Mazoka in 2001, the closest that the UPND came to wining a presidential election (Mr. Mazoka was much more popular nationwide than Mr. Hichilema This leap, in a single five-year cycle would also have to be weighted and compared against the step by step increments the PF were able to achieve from their 29% in 2006, 38% in 2008 and finally 42% in 2011. This was an upward swing of 13% over five years, from a starting base of almost 30% and three elections. A dramatic change from 18% to the winning number of 40% for the UPND in 3years would be incredibly impressive, considering the vote consolidation factor among the three major parties. This unprecedented 22% upward swing would be nearly three quarters greater than Mr. Satas 13% gain. The magnitude of the swing becomes more unbelievable when you consider that the current presidential election trajectory for the UPND over four elections has been downwards: i.e. 27% in 2001, 25% in 2006, 20% in 2008 and 18% in 2011. An understanding of how Zambia voted in the presidential election will help us predict what is coming forth. Despite Sata having been around for sometime he could not outdo MMD in their strong holds. In 2011 despite the wind of change that was all over the country, Sata couldnt outdo MMD in their 4strong holds. PF will therefore maintain their lead in Copperbelt, Lusaka, Northern (& Muchinga), Luapula and add Eastern Province. Looking at the number of registered voters in PF strong holds its an unimaginable to expect HH to win. Its obvious that its extremely unlikely for the UPND to produce this 22% upward swing within 3 years. UPND should take a leaf from PF and MMD and start planning who should take over from HH. Copyright from Muvi(B.M)
Posted on: Tue, 06 Jan 2015 20:08:58 +0000