WTPA41 PHFO 281453 TCDCP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013 500 AM HST SUN JUL 28 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT FLOSSIE GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED OVERNIGHT...BUT THAT TREND APPEARS TO HAVE ABATED SOMEWHAT IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...WITH THE CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A TRMM PASS AT 0733Z SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EYE FEATURE...AND HINTS OF THAT FEATURE WERE APPARENT IN EARLIER INFRARED GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. A 0630Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS AS HIGH AS 45 KT IN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE...BUT GIVEN THE APPARENT IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT...AND THE TENDENCY FOR ASCAT TO UNDERESTIMATE WIND SPEEDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 55 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT. ALTHOUGH SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG FLOSSIE/S PROJECTED PATH...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FLOSSIE EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ALOFT...DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE ALOFT JUST WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS FLOSSIE MOVES WEST...THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO IMPART INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...AND INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GRADUAL WEAKENING...BUT AT A SLOWER RATE THAN EARLIER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS THUS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FLOSSIE/S FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS IT DISTANCES ITSELF FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE FAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH NEARLY ALL THE MODELS SHOWING FLOSSIE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI MONDAY MORNING...PASSING SOUTH OF OAHU MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 19.8N 146.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 20.1N 149.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 20.2N 152.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 20.3N 156.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 20.5N 159.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 20.9N 166.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 21.2N 173.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sun, 28 Jul 2013 14:53:54 +0000
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