Washington and Brussels have drawn lines and threatened serious sanctions, and the time has come to show they mean it. -- The New York Times Editorial Board The Ukrainian Crisis Reaches a New Level By THE EDITORIAL BOARD, THE NEW YORK TIMES JULY 1, 2014 President Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine took the fateful step late Monday of ending his unilateral cease-fire in the struggle with separatists in eastern Ukraine, declaring: “We will attack and liberate our land.” The attacks began shortly after, moving the Ukrainian crisis to a highly dangerous but unavoidable level. Dangerous because Ukrainian forces are woefully ill-equipped and ill-trained to fight what is essentially a civil war, in which Ukrainian civilians are bound to be casualties; unavoidable because neither the rebels nor Russia ever took seriously the negotiations with Kiev and Western mediators. In effect, the long-building showdown has begun, and it is essential for the West to shed any illusions about what is at stake. First, President Vladimir Putin of Russia will not easily back down. He has been happy to hold long telephone conversations with Mr. Poroshenko, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President François Hollande of France. He has made conciliatory offers and gestures, but he has neither sealed the border nor discouraged Russians from joining the rebels. On the morning after Mr. Poroshenko canceled the cease-fire, Mr. Putin described the crisis at a meeting with Russian diplomats in classic Cold War terms, as an effort by the West to encircle Russia. “We need to understand clearly that the events provoked in Ukraine are the concentrated outcome of the notorious deterrence policy,” Mr. Putin declared. That was not the talk of a man prepared to retreat, especially given the huge popularity boost he received from the annexation of Crimea in March. Mr. Putin, moreover, knows that Europe has little stomach for a real sanctions war, and there is not a lot he needs to do to keep the flames burning in eastern Ukraine — or to turn them up or down as necessary. He probably does not intend to annex the eastern provinces, but he is determined that they will remain under firm Russian control. Mr. Poroshenko also has little room left to maneuver. Having signed a trade pact with the European Union that his ousted predecessor rejected, and now having sent troops to quell the rebellion in the east, he has committed Ukraine to a struggle that is bound to be long and painful. Russia has already raised Ukrainian gas prices and has threatened “serious consequences” over the trade agreement, and things are likely to get worse, economically and militarily, before any potential advantages of the European Union agreement kick in. The United States and Europe have been right, so far, to moderate their response and to give diplomacy every chance. Nobody wants a trade war; certainly not Europe, with its heavy dependence on Russian energy, and not the American businesses that have begun lobbying against sanctions. And every effort must be made to convince the Russians that this is not about “deterrence.” But the agreement that Ukraine signed, along with Georgia and Moldova, is not only about trade. It’s also a commitment by the West to support them in their progress toward a higher standard of governance. Washington and Brussels have drawn lines and threatened serious sanctions, and the time has come to show they mean it.
Posted on: Wed, 02 Jul 2014 18:05:01 +0000
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