Water levels bounce back in Georgian Bay Water levels bounce back in Georgian Bay Water levels bounce back in Georgian Bay Ian Adams photo Georgian Bay Forever executive director David Sweetnam says while water levels are up this fall, its too soon to tell if its a trend, or a blip. SIDEBAR Lake Michigan-Huron Water Levels Chart Datum: 176 metres October, 2014: 176.54 metres Long-term average for October: 176.37 Historic high for October: 177.38 (1986) Historic low for October: 175.65 (1964) Wasaga Sun By Ian Adams Water levels in the middle Great Lakes have bounced back dramatically, nearly two years after hitting historic lows. But just because the water is higher doesnt mean the problem is solved, say those working to keep the issue of low water levels in the public eye. In Lake Huron, which includes Georgian Bay, the water level remains a half-metre (20 inches) above chart datum of 176 metres. Its also about 80 cm above where it was two years ago, as the level of the lake was headed to set a new record low. According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which tracks water levels on the lakes, Huron-Michigans seasonal rise continued through October due to persistently wet conditions, and was the second consecutive month with above-average water levels after a 15-year stretch of continuously below-average conditions. The middle lakes also benefited from near-record ice cover this past winter, which helped keep evaporation low. Its predicted - especially if its another cold winter - that water levels in Michigan and Huron could stay 40-to-50 centimetres above chart datum over the next six months. Drew Gronewold, a hydrologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, says the rise in water levels from a record low in January, 2013, to the current level, is the largest in recorded history. The challenge for us is to understand what variables are driving this change, he said from his office in Ann Arbor, Michigan. There is a combination of factors. Along with increased precipitation and less evaporation because of ice cover in the winter, the middle lakes have also seen increased flow from Lake Superior, which is 30 cm higher than last year, and above its long-term average. Collingwoods Ulli Rath, whos made water levels his passion and was instrumental in forming a Collingwood chapter affiliated with Stop The Drop, is not convinced the tide has turned on water levels. Rath, a geologist by trade, communicates on a regular basis with water level experts at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, NOAA, and the International Joint Commission. Most of the people I deal with tend to think what were experiencing is an outlier, Rath said. Weve had 14 years of [low water conditions], and now weve had these extremes in a very condensed period. I dont believe this is the start of a long-tern trend. Gronewold said NOAA expects Michigan-Huron will follow its current trend for the next six months, but otherwise it can be difficult to predict what water levels will do in six months - especially in the big picture of changing water levels. Last June [of 2013], no one could have predicted the cold air mass that gripped the area [last winter], so its hard to tell where things are going, and its hard to say whats occurring is some kind of blip, he said. Historically, the lakes can oscillate in extremes, and can go up or down ... variability is part of the system. Georgian Bay Forever executive director David Sweetnam cautions that a one-year blip in water levels shouldnt be taken as an indication the issue is solved. Were looking at weather impacts, and climate is different - it takes a lot longer to look at those impacts, he said. In terms of [shoreline] ecology and the economy, were not out of the woods. Were still trying to understand the science. In five years, we could be back at record lows ... we cant keep starting and stopping the process. Rath says the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is wrapping up a study that would outline the parameters of a proposal for a long-term solution to maintain water levels in the middle lakes by installing compensation structures in the St. Clair River. He also wants the Canadian government to take more of an interest, in both the issue, and in the funding of a study. I still think [a study] is a very relevant process that needs to be done, he said. I think we should continue to keep the pressure on the politicians. Its nice to see the lake levels up, but I just dont believe its a responsible approach to say thats it.
Posted on: Tue, 11 Nov 2014 17:00:51 +0000
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