Where do 3-year-olds fit best in Breeders Cup? By Byron King Among the many challenges of handicapping the Breeders’ Cup is weighing how the 3-year-olds will fare against their elders. And this year, the challenge is front and center, with the four early Breeders’ Cup Classic favorites – Shared Belief, Bayern, California Chrome, and Tonalist – all being 3-year-olds and many other key Breeders’ Cup races featuring the young vs. the old. This led me to wonder: How have 3-year-olds performed in the Breeders’ Cup over the years? So, I dug up charts from the last 10 Breeders’ Cups to see how the 3-year-olds ran. I chose 10 years purely because it was a nice, even number that provided a solid sample size without including data that would be so far back to render it insignificant. I then broke down the numbers on a race-by-race basis, which is reflected in the accompanying chart. Races no longer a part of the Breeders’ Cup, like the Marathon, are not listed. The findings Only two 3-year-olds have won the Classic over the past 10 years, Curlin in 2007 and British invader Raven’s Pass a year later at Santa Anita on its old synthetic surface. But it is important to keep in mind that there have been plenty of close defeats for 3-year-olds, too, most recently Will Take Charge’s nose loss to Mucho Macho Man in the race last year. Will Take Charge, like California Chrome this year, was untested against older horses prior to the Classic. Other races saw 3-year-olds experience more success, such as the Turf and the Distaff, which was also called the Ladies’ Classic for a while. Three 3-year-old fillies – Beholder, Royal Delta, and Ashado – came out on top in that division. But most noteworthy was how well 3-year-olds did on turf – specifically Europeans. Horses such as Ouija Board and Midday took the Filly and Mare Turf in 2004 and 2009; Goldikova won the Mile in 2008 as a 3-year-old (and later took it at 4 and 5); and Red Rocks, Conduit, and Magician won the Turf in 2006, 2008 and 2013. Not a single American-based grass horse won one of those races at 3, with Kitten’s Joy being one of the few to contend, with a runner-up finish in the 2004 Turf. Of course, very few even raced. Young female sprinters also struggled mightily in the Filly and Mare Sprint. Race Record of 3YOs Winners Classic 41-2-5-2 Curlin (2007, $10.80), Ravens Pass (2008, $29) Dirt Mile 19-2-2-2 Goldencents (2013, $9.60), Calebs Posse (2011, $15,60) Distaff 33-3-4-4 Beholder (2013, $7.60), Royal Delta (2011, $6.40), Ashado (2004, $6) F&M Sprint 13-0-1-2 **** F&M Turf 30-2-1-5 Midday (2009, $6.60), Ouija Board (2004, $3.80) Mile 23-1-3-1 Goldikova (2008, $5.60) Sprint 21-2-3-1 Trinniberg (2012, $29.40), Silver Train (2005, $25.80) Turf 15-3-3-2 Magician (2013, $27), Conduit (2008, $13.60), Red Rocks (2006, $23.60) Turf Sprint 6-0-1-1 **** Interpreting the data My take on these numbers: The results of many of these races are likely specific to the unique circumstances of a division’s strength in a given year, not necessarily a function of age. But there are some takeaways from the data. No. 1: European 3-year-olds command respect in grass races, particularly the Turf, where they have been statistically superior to every other race. No. 2: If you hold a high opinion of an American 3-year-old, you get the most value at the betting windows if they are untested vs. older horses prior to the Breeders’ Cup. Those who haven’t already passed the older-horse test go off at higher odds. Trinniberg’s upset of the Sprint as a 3-year-old in 2012, in which he went off in excess of 13-1 odds, is a good example. Applying the statistics to this year I wouldn’t recommend betting blindly off these numbers, as there still remains much more important data to ponder – the past performances themselves. But in a tiebreaker scenario – where a horseplayer is torn between supporting one of two horses – looking at these results could prove worthwhile. So much in a division depends on what has already unfolded in a given year. And given the retirements and injuries among the older male handicap horses this year, it should come as no surprise that the 3-year-olds loom as major players in this year’s Classic. The most accomplished older male horses expected for this year’s Classic are Zivo, Moreno, and Majestic Harbor – not exactly horses likely to be on a Hall of Fame ballot in the future. In light of this data, I like Untapable a bit more in the Distaff – given the reasonable success of 3-year-old fillies in the race and that she has not yet won a race against older mares, thereby adding to her value. And I also plan to take a hard look at the European 3-year-olds in the longer grass races.
Posted on: Thu, 16 Oct 2014 23:16:49 +0000