Why GEJ WILL BE RE-ELEECTED-kunle Akingbulu President Goodluck Jonathan will be re-elected for second term. With the number of states controlled by the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC), the strength of its presidential candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari and the perceived unpopularity of the Jonathan administration at present, there is the temptation to declare that a change at the centre is inevitable. I do not see transfer of power from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to APC at the centre happening. What I see is that next month’s presidential election will be tight, as the opposition is not only strong but has a strong candidate too. However, I see the election going the way of Jonathan. I see Jonathan defeating Buhari with a close margin, in the first ballot. It’s not that I have lost sight of the fact that North West and South West votes, which the APC is confident it would sweep, when combined may guarantee Buhari huge votes. However, could APC be sure of such bloc votes? In South West, PDP made a smart move by taking Ondo and Ekiti. Also, in Lagos, it’s a 50-50 chance for Jonathan and Buhari, with the number of South easterners and South southerners. Minus Ekiti and Ondo and with half Lagos, Buhari’s South West bloc votes is reduced. This is notwithstanding Prof Yemi Osinbajo’s The Redeemed Christian Church of God connection. In the North West, where we have Kaduna, Kebbi, Zamfara, Sokoto, Kano, Jigawa and Katsina states, the temptation is that it’s “sai Buhari.” Perhaps! However, while you give APC Sokoto, because of Speaker Aminu Tambuwal mainly and Kano, owing to Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, the APC candidate will contend with opposition in Kaduna, Katsina, his home state and Jigawa, since Governor Sule Lamido is not pleased with Buhari, whom he accused of “harbouring dirtiest people in the country.” North East zone of Taraba, Borno, Bauchi, Adamawa, Gombe and Yobe states has three states, where insurgency is a problem. This will affect the results. And in North Central states of Kogi, Niger, Benue, Kwara, Plateau, Nasarawa and the Federal Capital Territory, when you look at the composition of the states, in terms of religion and ethnicity, Buhari cannot overwhelmingly claim the zone. And, of course, South East and South South, minus Edo, will stand behind Jonathan. Therefore, Jonathan stands a better chance of retaining power than Buhari taking over.
Posted on: Wed, 07 Jan 2015 16:12:59 +0000
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