Will It Play in Persepolis? New research reveals that Iranians may be more willing to make a nuclear deal with the United States than previously thought. Both President Barack Obama and Rouhani will be more likely to take political risks to reach an agreement if they think that the terms would have broad public support. A better way to ensure that Irans nuclear program is exclusively peaceful is to focus on Irans political choices as much as its technical capabilities. While members of Congress talk tough now about imposing more sanctions or taking military action, this study indicates that their political calculation could change if the P5+1 and Iran successfully conclude an agreement. Would a Republican-controlled Congress really want responsibility for scuttling a deal that placed limits on and increased the transparency of Irans nuclear program? The GOPs alternative would be to convince other countries that supported the compromise deal to punish Iran, and bet that imposing yet another round of sanctions would coerce Tehran into giving up its enrichment program altogether. Thats a risky gamble: Iran responded to previous rounds of sanctions by increasing its nuclear activity. As Iran and the P5+1 approach their deadline, our research contains reasons for optimism that public opinion can sustain an agreement. Both the Iranian and American publics appear ready to support a comprehensive deal that extends the restraints Iran voluntarily implemented during the first stage of the agreement, with additional transparency and confidence-building measures. If negotiators can reach a deal on these terms, hard-liners would be hard-pressed to convince everyone else that the world would be better off without such a deal than with one. foreignpolicy/articles/2014/11/21/will_it_play_in_persepolis_iran_nuclear_deal_public_opinion_poll
Posted on: Sat, 22 Nov 2014 20:20:45 +0000
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