** Winter Update Mon. Dec, 29th ** I must warn you, this post isnt for the faint of heart. Snow lovers fright? Or Spring lovers delight? Lets get it going shall we... Valuable information you wont often receive on social media, Please read & enjoy... First on the table, whats plagued our beloved Winter forecast thus far? Its rather simple (not). You have an extremely fast moving Jetstream blasting in from the Pacific Ocean, ultimately flowing in warmer Pacific air. Coupled with a large Northwest Ridge that reaches well in to Alaska (to far West). Throw in a very positive NAO allowing the PV (polar vortex) to stay in place and a Southeast Ridge to dominate the Eastern half of the Conus. All that meteorological talk simply means Trough sets in for the West (in between the two Ridges mentioned above) allowing the storm track to cut through the Heart Land, keeping the Southeast in the warm sector. Now, I can continue to dissect the past, but I know youd much rather cut to the chase... I mentioned this morning, model guidance has been/continues to be rather erratic in determining storm tracks & upper level features. This is in part due to the model guidance processing so much in the atmosphere, essentially over processing data if you will. especially in mid-long range guidance. So basically models are having a hard time picking up on key elements leaving the future rather exciting! I will say our current active setup (even though its been rain) is good to see if your a snow lover. Id much rather see an active southern setup than extreme cold Arctic air being locked in with no available moisture. One must note a lot of our southern snows come after a brief warm up! Folks, a favorable pattern for snow isnt as far off as you may think.... --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Heres my winter forecast that I made public 2 months ago based off the information received @ that time. (General description) ** My current outlook for East TN: Below Average temps will dominate our winter. Temps for 75% of our Winter appear to be at or below average for our region, the other 25% is valid for the occasional warm spell. Above average snowfall will be likely. General possibilities (the snow totals mentioned will be Valley totals, obviously higher totals above 2500ft especially) (2) medium snow storms of 4+ inches, (1) large scale snow storm of 7+ inches, along with (2) moderate ice events. Since East TN has such unique terrain to factor in (some parts of the Valley get hammered, while other parts receive minimal affects), Ill be using a formula to check my accuracy while tallying my above forecast at the end of the winter season. 60% of the Valley will have to receive at least the low end of my above mentioned snowfall accumulation in order to be counted as a successful forecast. A few small scale disturbances will also bring occasional minor accumulations throughout the winter months. I went with a lower elevation forecast due to a majority of our population residing below 2500ft. Above 2500ft will see much more snow and many more events. Theyve already received a rather significant event on Feb.1st . End Quote Note: I have slightly adjusted the Below Average temps to 65% and Above Average temps to 35%. The snow forecast stays valid.. I will take another look at our upper level pattern Mid January to see if any changes need to be made. One huge reason I will not change my snowfall forecast yet is the simple fact I never thought we had a legit shot at a snow event until Mid January through Early March. So technically my thinking is still 90% valid even though weve got off to what some would say a slow start. Note; Average seasonal snowfall for Chattanooga (4 inches). Knoxville (6 inches). Tri Cities (9 inches). --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Depending on the typical numerous variables Mother Nature throws at us, I still believe well have a interesting Winter. The negative aspect of social media is meteorological bias. The science of weather is far from perfect however the public presumes its an exact science (Quite the opposite). Yes I get technical and go over bored in my terminology sometimes, but the more your informed on behind the scenes weather information with factual interpretation, the more you learn and gain a new respect for weather, hints why I always say ETSW your source for behind the scenes weather information. If you want to cut to the chase and learn nothing, this page isnt for you. If you want to enjoy living life on the edge of science, well have some fun!!! Last but not least, Winter isnt over, Its only begun! Hope you enjoyed! ^^MK
Posted on: Mon, 29 Dec 2014 23:50:49 +0000
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