Wont Get Fooled Again Another quiet start to the WPAC weather scene this morning, but there are long-range hints that things could take a nasty turn for portions of the Philippines. As we look at the WPAC map now, there is very little to talk about. Cold fronts continue to impact Japan and points to the west and north. A mostly benign weather pattern exists over SE Asia, the Philippines, and Oceania. Models are showing an interesting Fujiwara interaction between two, and possibly three, mid-latitude low pressure areas north of 50N latitude and out near 170E longitude during the week. The most buzz right now concerns a strong tropical system that is being forecast to move into the Philippines sometime between the 26th and 29th. GFS has been consistent in the last three days runs in showing a tropical cyclone developing during the middle of next week and moving across the Philippines somewhere between the Visayas and central Luzon. Since we are still more than a week away from this scenario, we need not consider it a sure thing. But GFS has had a pretty good track record this season, so we will watch things closely out there. We have plenty of time. Elsewhere, the southern hemisphere cyclone seaason has officially started with the formation of tropical storm ADJALI. However, the upper-level environment is not favorable for further development, and the system will likely dissipate without much fanfare near Madagascar. Enjoy your Tuesday!
Posted on: Tue, 18 Nov 2014 00:52:40 +0000
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