Youve been waiting for it... the official WeatherOhio 2014-2015 winter forecast! Here are the highlights: 1. I expect a warmer winter than last year overall, although I still expect some arctic blasts, and a couple of significant winter storms are possible. 2. El Nino is developing and will certainly be a factor. El Nino should allow for a wetter winter across the southern tier of the country, but some of this subtropical warmth and moisture may slip north at times into Ohio. The type of air mass in place during these times will determine precipitation type. 3. The North Atlantic Oscillation will likely be the star of the show. If we have a persistent and strong negative status, I look for conditions to be similar to the winter of 2009-2010. If we see a generally neutral or positive status, above average temperatures and somewhat dryer conditions may prevail. The full story: After reviewing the data available, I believe that the coming winter season will be less severe overall than last winter. The main reason for this is that we have an El Nino developing (second attached image shows warmer temperatures off of Central and South America). It looks like it will be a weak El Nino, so at this time I do not favor a warm, wet winter like stronger ones tend to bring. Instead, I favor a winter with variability. This variability will be tied to the North Atlantic Oscillation, or the NAO for short. The NAO has been a strong player over the summer and early fall, coinciding almost perfectly with our cool spells and warm spells. The third attached image shows you the history of the NAO for the past several months. Weve generally been in a negative or near-neutral state, and likewise temperatures have been cool, with a lack of severe storms despite being wet at times. However, you can see it swung strongly positive in August and September. At the same time, we warmed up and dried out, seeing some above average temperatures and a lack of rainfall. As the El Nino has weakly taken hold, this has exacerbated the effects of the NAO. As a result, I think we will see a winter with variability. Arctic cold will come at times, but when the NAO recovers to neutral or positive territory, we will likely warm up and calm down. The fourth attached image highlights the worst case scenario of the coming winter. This is when moisture-rich storms come in on the active southern branch of the jet stream (also known as the pineapple express) and interact with an arctic air mass in place courtesy of the northern branch of the jet stream. If these storms can phase just right with the arctic air - much like we saw in February 2010 - we could see a significant winter weather event. I cant speak for snow or ice totals now, as each storm is different, but a couple of big ones are quite possible in this setup. So, in summary, yes, snow and arctic cold is possible, but I expect a relief from the persistent extreme cold of last winter, and some dry and warm spells are possible. I will issue an update to this forecast sometime around Thanksgiving if needed.
Posted on: Sun, 12 Oct 2014 03:12:40 +0000
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