de WB0NSQ AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 302221Z - 302315Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND E OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE...BUT POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT CAPE AND ANY ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND RISK. DISCUSSION...SURFACE HEATING/MIXING HAS REMOVED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE ZONE OF DIFFUSE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE NE TX PANHANDLE TO NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR HYS. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CLOSE TO I-70. THE STORMS WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN WHILE SPREADING NEWD...BUT ONLY MID-UPPER 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6 C/KM IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. THUS...THE HAIL/WIND RISK WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS POSSIBLE WHERE WARM SECTOR CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE RICHER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHILE INTERACTING WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WATCH AT THIS TIME. ..THOMPSON.. 09/30/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 39179900 39519768 39739680 39639654 39369652 38689724 38089790 37619842 37249894 37089947 37309973 38149943 38849936 39179900 WWWW
Posted on: Tue, 30 Sep 2014 22:22:46 +0000
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