(machine translation) May 30, 2014 Andrei Illarionov, The aggression against Ukraine will inevitably culminate changing borders of Russia Former adviser to Vladimir Putin outlined his vision of the Week Prospects of Russian imperialism, the effectiveness of western diplomacy and the possible consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian War. UW: According to recent sociological studies, 85% of Russians support Putin. The more you do , Andrew, explain ? This is a possible form of mass hysteria , the collective inferiority complex that is looking for compensation? Figures pretty disturbing ... - In fact, never in the history of modern Russia, and probably will not be mistaken by saying that in recent years, and the Soviet Union, at least since there were any more or less adequate Sociological methods such indicators support the government was not. Sure , the numbers are extremely dangerous . They demonstrate excessive, huge level of sympathy for the aggressive imperialist policy, which makes Putins regime . Therefore , wind situation even further to a standstill. If the power level of support among the population in the Russian- Ukrainian war, was much lower , it would have remained a chance to reach a compromise. Have not immediately , but sometime in the reasonable future. However, this support essentially means that the Russian authorities not only from his own desire , but now according to sociological data about their support will have to go to the conflict, which has every chance to develop into a fourth world war. Unfortunately, this is another confirmation that it is much more real than many of us would like to think . Regarding the reasons why this is so , it is best to seek the interpretation of psychologists and psychiatrists or specialists with massive mental disorders. Of course , such incidents have occurred in history . At least now we have witnessed the phenomena , which was known only from historical documents. Witness how massively shalila of imperial conquest Germany late 1930 s - early 1940s and how similar processes while demonstrating the USSR. From an academic point of view it is certainly interesting. But for people who live in these conditions , the situation is very painful. Ukraine quickly eliminate enclaves postsovkovoho thinking on its territory, while its eastern neighbor rolled into archaic UW: Why Russia wants to remain an empire and develop in this format? From an economic point of view the system is inefficient, uncompetitive globally . But Russia stubbornly pryroschuye new territory. This is the power of inertia age or something else? - There are two main reasons. One is rational and the other - rather irrational. Until relatively andrational are factors properly be called ideological . Many conventional operations of power comes not from logical reasoning, as it would be a better country, the people, the voters and even the leaders, but from the irrational ideas about what and how it should be. It is clear that in the mind of Vladimir Putin for a long time and with his direct participation laid down the concept of n measure , union most split of the people of the world - the Russians. Trying to collect them under a common roof of state is actually a replica of the concept, which preached Adolf Hitler and Alfred Rosenberg in 1920 -30 s regarding union dispersed the German nation. A similar concept preached by Mr. Miloševic , putting forward the argument split the Serbian people , such a theory developed by Hungarian fascists during the Second World War, justifying the policy of his governments efforts to establish control over territories that belonged to Hungary before World War I. ... The consequences for all who tried to implement such a policy , namely Messrs Hitler, Horthy , Szalasi , Miloševic - as illustrative and pathetic . Paltry they are not just dictators but also for peoples who became flesh in this adventure and lost millions for the implementation of imperial phantoms . This so-called irrational part. Read more: ATU , ATU soldiers ... They come But there is a rational, how you can use this term to explain current policy . The fact is that to retain power in the harsh authoritarian regime that we have today in the easiest possible when people have shown the enemy. And it should not only be propaganda flames leaders, this myth has seen convincing to the masses. Over the past 15 years in the role of the enemy regime for Russian Chechens elected , Estonians , Georgians , sometimes Latvians , Belarusians , Lithuanians, oligarchs ... Despite the temporary success of the respective campaigns, they have failed to ignite hatred of Russian society . As the East Ukraine failed to inflate Putin campaign encouraged separatism and proclamation terrible enemies like the Estonians , or Georgians could not possibly permanently capture the attention of society. So after many attempts to find all sorts of enemies, after all, the propaganda machine slid in long known and proven track - anti-Americanism . His campaign was developed in standard traditions of Soviet propaganda that has several decades. This is the first . Secondly , the only force that can make at least some substantial impression on Russian society - a real threat. The Russians , their community , state ... only serious candidate for this role - United States. So it happened that the immediate needs of the Putin regime, and elaborated in the previous decade, processing technology minds of Soviet and post-Soviet citizens came together at one point : the anti-Americanism . That all worked, the ideology of anti-Americanism should always be fed something that we see. Therefore, there are ideological and pragmatic, relatively rational and irrational relative to factors that contributed to imperialism resuscitation . UW: Lets evaluate the effectiveness of Western-style communication with Russia. How to adequate ? Is it possible to overcome tolerance to intolerance ? Really curb undemocratic opponent democratic methods ? - Undoubtedly, both in Europe and in the West generally available different forces . There are those who feel the danger of revisionism and revanchism Putins Russia. There are many people and becomes more and more . Many people see what is happening in Eastern Europe and the consequences can lead to lack of adequate response to the imperial action. At the same time we must honestly say that there is a huge part of the Western world , which stubbornly prefer not to see the obvious things . There are several reasons . On ideological grounds among the left - and now also in the International Right of parties to whom Putin has now become the de facto leader - to the banal bribe. However, the visible part of the Western political , business , world expert believes that any peace with leaders of Russia and Putinism better than Putins opposition to aggression. UW: Do you think , Ukrainian chance to survive in an armed confrontation with Russia and retain an independent state ? - Not all doubts. Lately I have become more and more perekonus : that it will. Moreover, it is clear that in Ukraine have greater potential survival can not see those in power or state institutions , although they have little observed weaknesses shift in the right direction, but first of all in society. It has 20 -plus years of independence took a huge track. It has changed, matured , became more serious , more advanced compared to n. Read more: Andrei Illarionov , A new world war has begun I remember the beginning of the 1990s, when many issues of economic , political, ethnic transformation of Russia was seen as having far ahead of Ukraine , and she looked very backward, not afraid of the word , shovels , it seemed : to bridge this gap is not possible. Today , 20 years later, we see how Ukraine quickly eliminate enclaves postsovkovoho thinking on its territory, while its eastern neighbor rolled into archaism. For all significant social and political indicators ( democracy , civil liberties , human rights ), it was over twenty years ahead of him , and now the gap between the two countries for your tremendous . It has never been a mass murder of civilians , as in Russia during the Chechen campaign , or harassment of the media in Russia , although in some years , such as Kuchma and Yanukovych , the media were subjected to pressure . But its not comparable to what happened and is happening in Russia. Today, your society is much more mature. Recent events , including three months and three months Maidan Russian- Ukrainian War led to its rapid maturation, further consolidation, the involvement of Ukrainians as a society and the state. This is a very important and valuable lesson , though, maybe he got a price. The events of recent months have shown that in your country there are many ethnic Russians and its patriots He demonstrated the complete failure of the Kremlin propaganda about the existence of a problem, allegedly of Russian language as the level of public opinion is a question of interest is not more than 8-10 % of people. All polls show scant support for separatism. And the fact that it was made by Russia in the last three months, in my opinion , only strengthened the desire of people , regardless of their ethnic origin , to maintain a united Ukraine . I will say one very important thing. The events of recent months have shown that in your country there are many ethnic Russians, who are its patriots. These are people who speak Russian , feel involvement in the culture , but they are active supporters of an independent Ukraine . This is a very important phenomenon. Today in Ukraine lives about seven million ethnic Russians. Not less than half of these people , maybe more, are clear Russian patriots of Ukraine. This is an important indication that it has already taken place as a modern , democratic and multi-ethnic society where the Russians as one of the most significant minorities play an important role and democratic . See also: Jacques Rupnik , When the empire falls apart, take decades to arrayed new procedure and there was stabilization UW: Does war with Ukraine on centrifugal in? Many researchers are expressed in the sense that the promotion, unless the organization separatist movement in East Ukrainian encourage separate nations and Russia. Others say , they say , the Russians are so accustomed to the strict vertical organization of society to expect rapid progress is not worth it ... - I would say something different. The fact is that today it is difficult to identify a direct impact on events in Russia itself , focusing on the least objective sociological study. But if you talk about the medium and longer term , the Russian- Ukrainian war , launched by Putin , almost inevitably will transfer resistance at the level of the Fourth World , which must end in defeat the aggressor. History knows where this expansion, in the name of genetic exceptionalism or association separated people have ended in victory for the attacker. It has always been defeated, his forces wiped out , and the territory controlled by the aggressor to the beginning of the armed conflict , on the initiative of the winners experienced major changes. Just compare the territories of the German Reich the summer of 1914 and at the end of World War I , the land Reich on September 1, 1939 and the area of modern Germany , borders Hungary to the Second World War and after it, the territory controlled by Slobodan Miloševic to top of the Yugoslav wars and on its completion History of aggression ... ended the same everywhere . This means that starting a war against Ukraine , Putin opened a Pandoras box for Russia . Subsequently, it will inevitably become a cause of the tragedy of the Russian people , millions of people in Russia and will lead to changes in its boundaries. tyzhden.ua/Politics/111051
Posted on: Thu, 05 Jun 2014 03:38:16 +0000
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