(original post in Arabic, used bing translator) Dr. cub seven Professor of Economics at the University of Sorbonne-Paris: The new United States strategy aims to reduce the State budget deficit by cutting the defence clause, which requires the withdrawal from Iraq and reduce dependence on Middle East oil. This finding that strategy in recent years it has managed to reduce the import of energy from the Gulf region and to reduce the defense budget to 3 percent of national income for the year 2015, i.e., approximately the same level as that of the Clinton period, after the fall of the Soviet Union and has reached about 8 percent in the George Bush Jr. And what was to be without repositioning the army, i.e., withdraw from Iraq, then in Afghanistan next year, in the interest of strengthening the presence in the Pacific and build new military strategy of containment and sanctions (starvation), and the use of aircraft (drone), spying (NSA). Why if I discovered suddenly daash and some troops to the field? Have you changed its strategy and alliances? And what does oil do? ** The oil variables influence the United States has stepped up its oil production over the last five years, with about 9 million barrels a day, while 4.5 million barrels per day when Obama came to the White House. And therefore import has dropped, especially from the Gulf region, only recently 13 percent of their needs, including 8 percent of Saudi Arabia, and this despite the high consumption to almost 15 million barrels per day. Obama administration of managed thanks to the development of a legal framework (tax system Assistant) encouraged the production of shale oil. Although lending to this sector (drilling) is a dangerous process financially, it has it own money flowed to a quarter of the total loans given high interest (High Yield). Thus, the United States (with Canada) is the only country in the world that could lift production significantly, while production dropped in most States (Iran, Venezuela, Russia) or remained unchanged (Saudi Arabia). In addition, oil import was increased from just one country is Canada. The big shift in u.s. energy sources to weaken OPEC and the collapse of oil prices considerably recently, in addition to the problems in many oil-exporting countries: Libya, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria and Russia. .. Does not seem that this situation will improve very soon for the demand side, as economic growth, whether in China or in Japan, fall, in Europe, there is no improvement on the foreseeable future with high public debt and low inflation. The United States thus became for a period of time in the oil market, if its price increase oil production, where rock to prevent significantly high price, but if too much it would close many of the oil wells, the United States will depend on Gulf oil imports of affordable, lightning collapse of prices which do not suit her well. The significant decrease of prices reduces its attractiveness for the benefit of Europe, China, Japan, and lead to the bankruptcy of large segments of energy in Canada, particularly in the sectors of alternative energy. For all that, the United States would be for a period of time an influential player in the oil market, the negative role of OPEC as a counterweight to the market prices. ** The geopolitical changes as the United States ruled in the oil market without any direct intervention, it also aspires to be a Middle Eastern States without excessive recourse to military force as in the past. It States in the Middle East have all weakened economically and politically, whether countries outside the region such as Russia and Europe, or within the region such as Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and even Israel. Europe depends entirely on foreign policy of the United States, and the biggest proof how to interact with the file of Ukraine and Germany which has escalated in this file after the NSA wiretapping scandal faced by Obama administration, it looked like a bullet on his release. Saudi Arabia, would lose about $ 100 billion annually if things remain the same. Which will lead to reduced influence in several files (from Egypt to Lebanon, through Yemen and the Syrian opposition..) and this despite having large reserves of dollars (700 billion). Certainly, the difficult position of negotiating nuclear Iran. Even Russia, which imports all the consumables will be critical for the next period, which probably will come in an economic recession has weakened their effectiveness in the Middle East. Keep there is one beneficiary of the new data, which is Turkey, which will decrease the energy import bill and improve its geostrategic placement as a link between East and West after the recent agreement with Russian President Putin. Here, Turkeys ambition collides with America daash, Kurds and Iraqi authority. Biden met last with Erdogan, stormy and contradictory attitude of the Kurdish town of kobani, whole emphasize that Turkey hand loose in Iraq or Syria, and that their economic situation does not allow it to the limit for the foreseeable future. And Americas intervention against daash was beyond the strategy used in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia. Based within the aviation and military real-time operations from time to time. And it came after us Vice President Joe Bidens remarks at Harvard University who was a famous friends of America in the Middle East, including Turkey, which he named specifically, assisted daash unintentionally and indirect, after Obama said that CIA information about daash was false. The intervention of America form and content is to prevent any change to the balance of power in the region and weaken the strong and weak supports, are always judged. ** The summary is also in the oil market as well as in the Middle East policy of the United States is trying to be effective at the lowest possible cost, but you wont be able to play that role for a long period of time, for a number of objective reasons relating to oil, and the public debt, and political alliances. Recent studies confirm that shale oil reserves exaggerated so much that the stock of wells is drained very quickly (about 50% in 3 years), so the cost of extracting the current high (60-70 dollars per barrel at least in Canada and the United States) will rise over the next few years, in addition to the production of this type of oil polluted water and large environmental cost much more than regular oil. On the economic front, the US public sector debt more than 17 trillion dollars, forcing the State to cut the defense budget, and this is what prevents the conversion of any threat to the great Act on the ground, which is also the case that Europes biggest European defense budget does not exceed 2 percent of national income in England, followed by France at 1.5%, and this means that there are only two States have a military force on the ground could alter the balance of power, of which Iran and Turkey in. Waiting for rearming Egypt. Maintains that, on the political level, there are currently no American administration allies in the Middle East: it is a contrast with the more traditional allies and are consistent with some historical enemies! The region has entered a phase of biting the fingers and will be a high cost for all States, any bet on a new role for the United States by her friends (or later) as a result of the by-election bounces in. Until the next presidential election.
Posted on: Fri, 26 Dec 2014 14:19:40 +0000