#tristatewx #INwx #ILwx #KYwx Mid-March Short-Term Climate Outlook: The first of several prominent troughs we are expecting has arrived, but will begin retreating tomorrow, and out of here by the weekend. Spring will resume for a couple days, albeit cooler than this week. From there well be on a bit of a rollercoaster. The images show a meteogram of temperatures over the next week ECMWF (Euro) left and American Models GFS/NAM (right), time is in order right to left. This is a simplified way of viewing raw data... Analysis shows: Warm Up Friday+Saturday (3/14-3/15), Cooldown Sunday+Monday (3/16-3/17), Warm Up Tuesday+Wednesday (3/18-3/19). Then by the 3/21 the first day astronomical Spring, another cool down. However it is still warmer then we started this month with temperatures only dropping into the Mid-40s. Thus the reality is, on average were warming up, the March Sun is helping, but with potent trough swinging by ever 2 days or so, we cannot sustain a meaningful significant warm up over the next week. This is actually a pretty typical March scenario. One other thing that jumps out is the lack of real precipitation from the ECMWF plot on the left... over the next several day we may not see more than .5 Active, but rather dry period despite the multiple fronts. Things will probably change and modify a bit - but from a broad perspective, I am not seeing anything significant over the next week or so.
Posted on: Wed, 12 Mar 2014 17:21:14 +0000
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