youtube/watch?v=mOwZwkhFemQ#aid=P8UVpSikVsg World Banker Makes Stunning Confession 19 minutes 1995-2005 World Bank President James D. Wolfensohn 2011 Q: in this talk at Stanford University he makes stunning declarations about race/ economics... A: I grew up in a world in which for decades there was one sixth of the world... by the year 2000... a billion of the people who had 80% of the world income... and then there were 5 billion people who are in the so-called developing world that had 20% of the global income... so much so that as we look out... the so-called 80:20 that I and my contemporaries grew up with is now looking at a very, very different future... the future that you will face... it is a future of 9 billion people on the planet by the year 2050... of the three billion extra that have been added to the planet... or that will be added to the planet from the year 2000... about 100 million goes to the rich countries and 2.9 billion goes to the developing countries... so come 2050... it is not 1 billion and 5 billion... it is 1.1 billion and 8 billion... or close to it... that is a change... a dramatic change... Q: what is driving this world wide change?... A: the other consequential change is that the structure of the economy is being driven both by the population and also by modern technology which has allowed the conveyance of ideas and innovation to move to the developing world... the projections today are that the old 80:20 with which I grew up with for decades... will become 35:65... 35% for the 1.1 billion in the rich countries and 65% for the people in the developing countries... that is turning the world on its head in terms of the world that I grew up in... Q: who will be the new minion class? _____ Q: IMF Predicts China Economy tops US by 2016... some think that China might become a larger economy a lot quicker than people think... is that the case?... A: that is right... nobody seems to have picked this up... the IMF dropped a bomb shell sometime I think in the last week very quietly on their web site and no one seems to have picked this up... they have now put out a forecast of when the Chinese economy will overtake that of the US... when you talk to a lot of Wall Street economists and talking heads they will tell you it is decades away... nonsense... it is 5 years time... 2016... ______ A: it is the world that you are going to work in... it is not a trivial change... it is a change of monumental importance... so much so that by 2050... China and India... of course the leading countries in the developing world will constitute 50% of the global GDP... that is the consensus estimate... let us say we are off 5%... it is 45% of the global GDP... it is non the less a monumental switch in terms of economic power... Q: how will this great shift effect the middle class around the world?... A: recently... until we had this crisis... the US had a sort of $10 trillion consumption... EU had $9 trillion... Asia and the rest of the developing world had a little less than $5 trillion... it was 10:9:5... the middle class in the world was... a couple of years a ago... was about 1.5 billion roughly in the middle class... 1 billion was in the rich countries in that group that I spoke of... about .5 billion in the middle class characterize incomes of between $10,000-$100,000 per capita... this amount of money was demonstrated to be heavily leveraged to these richer countries... Q: so what are the projections for the next 10 to 20 years?... A: by 2030 the estimate now is that there will be 3 billion people in the middle class... of that 3 billion two thirds of it will be in Asia... this is a switch from being a fraction... being less than a third... to being two thirds... that is a pretty dramatic shift... you will have a middle class in China of 1 billion people... these are not trivial changes in the outlook... these are tectonic shifts in terms of the way the planet works... as I said to you... as I look at all of you... in my generation we did not have to think about that... in the generation of the Dean... it was 80:20 or 78:22 or something like that... it was a balance where you knew you were the rich countries... the powerful countries... all the organs running the world were designed to accommodate that fact... Q: will the original people of the earth still be the enemy in the new world?... if so, how will their aspirations be dealt with?... A: in Africa the 800 million or 900 million people that are in Africa... that will grow to 2 billion people by 2050... 2 billion out of 9 billion... the estimates are that the average per capita income for people in Africa at that stage will be between $2,000-$3,000 per capita... the same projections would have China and India at between $30,000 and $40,000 per capita... so you have $2,000-$3,000 in Africa... $30,000-$40,000 in China and India... countries in the rich world... US/EU somewhere between $90,000 and $100,000... Q: will Africa break free from its former Colonial masters?... A: so if you have 2 billion people living in a continent with $2,000 to $3,000 per capita... you have China and India with more people... 3 billion between $30,000 to $40,000 per capita and you have the rest of the world somewhere either north of that or in the middle class somewhere between the two areas of the world... you have a basis for instability... Q: why is Africa a major problem for the rich world?... _______ Q: China-Nigeria Free Trade Zone... China and Nigeria are building one of Africa largest free zones in the commercial capital Lekki... Africa correspondent Scott Sterns reports Chinese companies will use this facility to manufacture goods for export throughout Africa... A: On the tip of the peninsula in Lekki... Nigeria and China are building a 16 hectare free trade zone to develop local manufacturing and reduce Nigerian dependence on imported consumer goods...it is one of the fastest growing areas in Lekki State and will soon have a new deep water port... an international airport... new hotels as part of a 60:40 partnership between the Chinese government and Lekki State... Adeyemo Thompson is Deputy Manager of the Lekki Free Zone Development Company... he says construction is on schedule for Chinese shareholders that include the China Railway Construction Corporation and the China-Africa Development Fund... it would be close to a $5 billion investment... _______ A: Africa is not a continent which is any longer isolated... it is not a place where people are uninformed... it is the fastest growing market for cellular phones... information as you well know... whether it is in the townships or wherever it is... news now passes very quickly... that is not just in South Africa... that is in the 53 countries in South Safari and Africa... this is not an issue which is going to go away... nor is it an issue that is trivial to what is being discussed here... this is a major issue which is not being confronted... which you will have to confront at some stage... that gets into a second issue which I would like to touch on... Q: confront?... does not Africa provide vital resources for the rich world?... tell us about the policy to eliminate all developmental aid to Africa... A: there was established decades ago a 0.7 target for foreign aid... my former colleague from this activity... he was here from a different part of Stanford I understand... knows this... we are now... really after a lot of speeches and a lot of activity... we are starting to get some momentum for the economic crisis of 15 months ago which we are now maybe getting out of to a degree... it is now not at 0.7... it is about 0.2 that we have reached... there are a lot of statements still being made in terms of the actual money which is flowing... if you x out the amount of money that is going to the trouble spots in the world today... there is very, very little development... in fact the per capita contribution to South Africa has been declining steadily over the last 10 or 15 years... A: what is interesting is to see how the dynamic between Africa and India and between Africa and China is developing... three years ago for the first time... the summit meeting of the African leaders was held in Beijing China... they swore after that, that it was unlikely that they would ever meet again in a Western country... simultaneously 400 African businessmen met in New Delhi India... each led to an understanding on the part of the Chinese and the Indians of having a dimension of their activities geared towards Africa... there has been an Indian community in Africa... particularly in East Africa... for a long time... there are now 750,000 Chinese in Africa... if you are in the business that I am in... Q: should college students worldwide continue to come to the West to study?... A: the second point that I would make is that in terms of China and India... in terms of their development... I was trying to get the most recent numbers... they may be in my Blackberry that I overlooked... but the numbers in 2007 were the following... there were 110,000 Chinese studying in the US... there were over 100,000 Indians studying in the US... I look around the room and I suppose it is not surprising... there were 11,200 Americans studying in China... 2,800 studying in India... this is madness... it is just madness... it is a tragedy... in terms of the potential for our young people that are still being guided to look towards Europe... to look towards work in the British or European Universities when the world is telling them that the dimensions have changed... A: the last thing that I will touch on is that historically the Western countries were able to stay ahead firstly because of manufacturing... that got taken out... manufacturing moved to Asia... the second thing that happened was that in service industries... it moved to the Western countries... now that has been taken out in terms of Asian dominance in the service areas... thirdly was in technology... we were able to stay ahead... but it is evident to you... and I am sure from your colleagues and people you know... the technological advance has now shifted as well... the challenge for our country is, what the hell is it that is going to be left for us... if Asia is eating our lunch and dinner in terms of the things that we used to be able to do... it is not just the US... it is truly that group of the so-called billion plus that were previously in the dominant faction of that 80% of the world GDP... A: I leave you with that issue because... as people going out into the world... if it were me today... the number one thing that I would be thinking about which is different from when I grew up is that the 80:20 rule which I had comfortably in my hip pocket is going to be a 35:65 rule... that puts a challenge of dramatic proportions to anybody who is going to business school today... _______ The London Summit 2000 Q: ...there is a power somewhere so organized... so subtle... so watchful... so interlocked... so complete... so pervasive... that they had better not speak above their breath when they speak in condemnation of it... President Woodrow Wilson... _______ Global News Q: it is quiet now... obviously the meeting is cancelled... they are taking no chances after the globalization protest of last week... the street wars on this spot during the same meeting last year of the IRS and the World Bank... Mr. Wolfensohn the protestors say that you are the chief of a secretive undemocratic world government which has actually made poverty worse worldwide... how do you respond?... A: I think it is nonsense... it simply... I have been accused of things... I did not know that was one of the accusations... I am not sure where this government is... if I could answer a more serious question as to what I think is behind it... I am very proud actually of what...
Posted on: Wed, 19 Mar 2014 06:38:47 +0000
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