2014 MLB Free Agents: Bold Predictions for Top Players Available: Major League Baseball and its fans may be in the throes of playoff insanity, but there are 22 teams hard at work making plans to challenge for a World Series next year. Free agency is a dangerous game to play, but sometimes the rewards are worth the risk. This years crop of free agents is an interesting lot. Theres huge star power at the top, particularly on the pitching side, but the pickings get slim in a hurry. Thats good news for guys looking to cash in, because teams are more likely to overpay for a middle-of-the-road talent in a year without much to choose from. While we wont know what teams are looking to do until after the World Series, theres no law saying that we cant predict what will happen. Using a combination of logic and analysis from around the Internet, these are our bold predictions for where the top players will end up. Note: Age is as of Opening Day 2015. Stats via Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Contract information via Cots Baseball Contracts. Jon Lester, LHP (Age: 31) Jon Lester couldnt have picked a more appropriate time to hit free agency. Hes coming off his best season in the big leagues, setting career highs in innings (219.2), ERA (2.46), ERA+ (155), FIP (2.80), WHIP (1,102) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.58). The left-hander also comes with the added benefit of a playoff pedigree thanks mostly to his time in Boston, with the one start for Oakland in this years American League Wild Card Game mixed in. Even though Boston fans might be clamoring for a reunion given the franchises need for a starting pitcher, general manager Ben Cherington doesnt seem like the kind of guy to hand out a five- or six-year deal to any pitcher. Plus, if the Red Sox really wanted Lester back, why trade him in the first place? The most interesting possible destination is in Chicago, where Cubs president Theo Epstein is talking playoffs and adding talent through various means, via Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago: Overall, for the organization, I think 2015 will be a little bit different than the previous three seasons in that we now think we have the talent to compete. And anytime you have enough talent to compete you want to set your sights high. ... Were in a position, perhaps as soon as this offseason, and certainly over the next 15 months, were going to be adding some talent from outside the organization that will further round out our club, It doesnt hurt that Epstein and Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer know Lester as well as anyone from their days in Boston. Chicago is loaded with young position-player talent. Javier Baez, Arismendy Alcantara and Jorge Soler all made their MLB debuts this year, while Kris Bryant and Addison Russell arent far behind. The one area of concern is on the mound. C.J. Edwards, who was acquired from Texas in the Matt Garza trade two years ago, only pitched 53.2 innings in the minors this year due to a shoulder injury. The Cubs also have money to spare after Alfonso Sorianos albatross deal finally came off the books, as well as the impending free agencies of Carlos Villanueva ($5 million) and Nate Schierholtz ($5 million). This is one instance where the marriage between player, front office and team makes too much sense not to happen. The only thing that gives me slight hesitation is wondering if Lester, given his age, wants to take a chance on going to a situation where a lot of young players need to establish themselves before knowing how good or bad the team will be. Its a real concern, but not one that outweighs all the positives. Lester signs with Cubs for five years, $130 million Max Scherzer, RHP (Age: 30) It seemed like a given that Max Scherzers time in Detroit was coming to an end for a long time. For starters, the 2013 American League Cy Young winner rejected an extension in March that Fox Sports Jon Morosi reported was for $144 million over six years: Another reason was that the deal they made in July to acquire David Price, who is entering his final year of arbitration after making $14 million in 2014. Its reasonable to expect the left-hander to get a deal in the $20 million range next season. Assuming that happens, the Tigers will have three players making at least $20 million (Price, Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera) and two others guaranteed $16 million each in 2015 (Ian Kinsler, Anibal Sanchez). Detroit does have more than $40 million coming off the books between Scherzer ($15.525 million), Torii Hunter ($14 million) and Victor Martinez ($12 million), so the front office could make Scherzer a bigger offer without increasing its payroll. However, doing so would severely limit the other moves it could make to replace the offensive production it would be losing in Martinez and Hunter. Plus, given Verlanders struggles this year and the money left on his deal, the Tigers might be gun-shy about handing out another big deal to a pitcher over the age of 30. The Cubs are a possible landing spot if they dont land Lester or are really intent on rebuilding their pitching staff by dishing out two huge contracts. A possible sleeper is Boston, because Red Sox chairman Tom Werner told WEEI Radio (via ESPN Boston) that there is money available to spend. I wouldnt say that we have limitless money, but weve got a lot of money to spend, and were determined to go into the free-agent market and improve the team, Werner said. Again, though, this comes down to how comfortable Cherington is giving out a long-term deal to a pitcher. Unless ownership overrules him, it doesnt seem likely. One team not mentioned for either player yet, but with a lot of money coming off the books, is the New York Yankees. Between Derek Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki, David Robertson, Hiroki Kuroda, Kelly Johnson and Brian Roberts, the Yankees are looking at $45 million in free money to play with. We saw what happened to that pitching staff this year, so the front office will undoubtedly be seeking upgrades wherever possible. Scott Boras is Scherzers agent, so whoever makes an offer will need deep pockets. Scherzer signs with the Yankees for six years, $150 million Victor Martinez, 1B/DH (Age: 36) Who says skills diminish with age? Victor Martinez had the best year of his career at the age of 35, leading the American League with a .409 on-base percentage and .974 OPS. He also broke the 30-home run barrier for the first time. Given his limited defensive capabilities and knee problems—notably a torn ACL that ended his 2012 season before it began—Martinez will need to sign with an American League team. It will also be interesting to see how he approaches these negotiations after giving Detroit a fairly friendly deal at $50 million over four years. Teams certainly dont value the designated hitter the way they once did, unless you have David Ortiz on your roster. That spot is often reserved to give regular players a day off from the field, but in an era where offense is down across the board, Martinez isnt your typical designated hitter. Considering that Martinez has, for the most part, made his home in the American League Central, its no surprise that Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports that the Chicago White Sox are going to be in the mix: That wouldnt be a bad idea for the team, as they need another big bat in the lineup to pair with Jose Abreu. Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko have been the primary first base/DH tandem for the White Sox, so Martinez would be a huge upgrade due to his ability to hit for average and power while getting on base. The Central figures to be wide-open next year if the Tigers lose all their impending free agents. Kansas City and Cleveland are building solid cores, while the White Sox have talent coming. They do need pitching too, but ranking 16th in average and 20th in on-base percentage makes it hard to score a lot of runs. Martinez signs with White Sox for three years, $45 million If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter. Read more MLB news on BleacherReport #MLB #VictorMartinez #JonLester #Opinion
Posted on: Sun, 05 Oct 2014 15:57:44 +0000
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