Drought Report: Weather Situation Report - 29 October 2013 Several features are coming together to set up the potential for heavy rainfall over Northeast Texas for the next couple of days. A southerly breeze is pumping gulf moisture into the lower levels. This low level moisture is adding to the mid/upper level moisture already in place. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Raymond (which will continue drifting southwest away from the Baja California) will provide the source for deep tropical moisture to stream across the Southwestern U.S. An upper level storm system rotating over Utah will tap into the moisture from Raymond, spreading it across the region. A weak Pacific front will cross the State tomorrow. Ahead of this feature, upper level disturbances could trigger the development of showers and thunderstorms tonight and into Wednesday morning for West Texas, with the storms spreading east through the day on Wednesday. Current trends suggest the critical time for the development of locally heavy rainfall for Northeast Texas is Wednesday night through Thursday and for East and Southeast Texas throughout the day Thursday. With expected upper level flow patterns, locally heavy rainfall of 4 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts can be expected over Northeast Texas. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches can be expected over East and Southeast Texas. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches could extend back toward the Hill Country. Current expected rainfall will likely generate runoff for area rivers (especially in areas that received significant rainfall this past weekend). Smaller tributaries and headwaters will likely respond to the rainfall. There is the possibility of minor flooding on the Upper Sabine River basins, along with faster responding tributaries of the East Fork of the Trinity River. Widespread moderate flooding is not expected, but there is the possibility of isolated spots approaching these levels if the rainfall comes in higher than currently forecast.
Posted on: Tue, 29 Oct 2013 18:24:16 +0000
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