Executive Summary In 2025, US aerospace forces can “own the weather” by capitalizing on emerging technologies and focusing development of those technologies to war-fighting applications. Such a capability offers the war fighter tools to shape the battlespace in ways never before possible. It provides opportunities to impact operations across the full spectrum of conflict and is pertinent to all possible futures. The purpose of this paper is to outline a strategy for the use of a future weather-modification system to achieve military objectives rather than to provide a detailed technical road map. A high-risk, high-reward endeavor, weather-modification offers a dilemma not unlike the splitting of the atom. While some segments of society will always be reluctant to examine controversial issues such as weather-modification, the tremendous military capabilities that could result from this field are ignored at our own peril. From enhancing friendly operations or disrupting those of the enemy via small-scale tailoring of natural weather patterns to complete dominance of global communications and counterspace control, weather-modification offers the war fighter a wide-range of possible options to defeat or coerce an adversary. Some of the potential capabilities a weather-modification system could provide to a war-fighting commander in chief (CINC) are listed in table 1. Technology advancements in five major areas are necessary for an integrated weather-modification capability: (1) advanced nonlinear modeling techniques, (2) computational capability, (3) information gathering and transmission, (4) a global sensor array, and (5) weather intervention techniques. Some intervention tools exist today and others may be developed and refined in the future. Table 1 – Operational Capabilities Matrix DEGRADE ENEMY FORCES ENHANCE FRIENDLY FORCES Precipitation Enhancement Precipitation Avoidance - Flood Lines of Communication - Maintain/Improve LOC - Reduce PGM/Recce Effectiveness - Maintain Visibility - Decrease Comfort Level/Morale - Maintain Comfort Level/Morale Storm Enhancement Storm Modification - Deny Operations - Choose Battlespace Environment Precipitation Denial Space Weather - Deny Fresh Water - Improve Communication Reliability – Induce Drought - Intercept Enemy Transmissions Space Weather - Revitalize Space Assets - Disrupt Communications/Radar Fog and Cloud Generation - Disable/Destroy Space Assets - Increase Concealment Fog and Cloud Removal Fog and Cloud Removal - Deny Concealment - Maintain Airfield Operations - Increase Vulnerability to PGM/Recce - Enhance PGM Effectiveness Detect Hostile Weather Activities Defend against Enemy Capabilities Current technologies that will mature over the next 30 years will offer anyone who has the necessary resources the ability to modify weather patterns and their corresponding effects, at least on the local scale. Current demographic, economic, and environmental trends will create global stresses that provide the impetus necessary for many countries or groups to turn this weather-modification ability into a capability. In the United States, weather-modification will likely become a part of national security policy with both domestic and international applications. Our government will pursue such a policy, depending on its interests, at various levels. These levels could include unilateral actions, participation in a security framework such as NATO, membership in an international organization such as the UN, or participation in a coalition. Assuming that in 2025 our national security strategy includes weather-modification, its use in our national military strategy will naturally follow. Besides the significant benefits an operational capability would provide, another motivation to pursue weather-modification is to deter and counter potential adversaries. In this paper we show that appropriate application of weather-modification can provide battlespace dominance to a degree never before imagined. In the future, such operations will enhance air and space superiority and provide new options for battlespace shaping and battlespace awareness.1 “The technology is there, waiting for us to pull it all together;”2 in 2025 we can “Own the Weather.”
Posted on: Sat, 15 Jun 2013 05:27:54 +0000
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