FXUS62 KMLB 300919 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 419 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2014 .DISCUSSION... ...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL NEXT 7 DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR... TODAY...LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT FOG AND STRATUS NOT AS PREVALENT THIS MORNING THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS BEING OBSERVED AT TIMES IN MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS. PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DISRUPT ANY WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME ADVECTION OF DENSE FOG ACROSS WEST FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN LAKE AND ALONG THE KISSIMMEE RIVER AND FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK. BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY AROUND OCALA-ST AUGUSTINE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REACH INTO FAR NORTHERN LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. INITIALLY...MAIN IMPACT MAY BE MORE FROM LOW STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS DECK ALSO BEING ADVECTED IN WITH THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST AREAS FROM I-4 NORTH BY DAYBREAK. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH SURFACE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RAPIDLY OUTRUNNING THE DEEPER BAND OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FEATURE. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARDS WITH TIME AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MOVES SOUTH. MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BUT COULD SEE THE OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF AS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS PICKING UP ON SOME HIGHER PWATS IN THE 1.4-1.6 RANGE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE AS THINK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH GIVEN IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL LOSE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL LATE MORNING AT BEST AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AROUND 80 ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT. HOWEVER IF CLOUDS LINGER LONGER...GIVEN THE SHORT DAYS TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH. TONIGHT...SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER MOST OF THE CONUS TAKES CONTROL. THIS WILL ARREST ANY FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...LEAVING BEHIND ITS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BAND. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE TREASURE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF I-4 WITH LOW-MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OF THE REGION AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. WED/WED NIGHT...THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH FL/NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND WASH OUT. N/NE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW AND THE CONTINUED SW FLOW ABOVE WILL PRODUCE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST ENVIRONMENT...THIS WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA WITH SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD STILL BE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS...FROM OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE COOLING BUT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NEAR LAKE GEORGE TO THE UPPER 70S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S NEAR LAKE GEORGE TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. THU-MON...A LARGE COLD SURFACE HIGH SPILLING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRIDGE THE DYING FRONT THU...LEADING TO WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NOT GET SCOURED OUT SO EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN ON THU AND FRI. BUT WITH NO UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW AND WILL KEEP NEW YEARS DAY DRY. AS FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ATLC SHOWERS TO REACH THE COAST BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CUT-OFF OVER THE SW U.S. EJECTS E/NE AND OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH. IN RESPONSE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND DEEPEN AS IT DOES SO. BUT WITH THIS SYSTEM LIFTING OUT SO QUICKLY...THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION BECOMING ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE NEARLY ZONAL WIND FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PUT US WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 80S. BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT SHOW A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT RATHER A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRIDGING THE WEAK FRONT ON MONDAY. CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRING A SMALL (20 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION... WEAKENING FRONT WILL BRING DZ/-SHRA INTO AREAS NORTH OF KLEE-KDAB BY 30/11Z...SPREADING SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL MOD MVFR SHRA LATE MORNING/AFTN. TEMPO MVFR VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS REGION THROUGH 14Z. EXPECT PREVAILING IFR/LIFR CIGS OVER N FL TO ADVECT INTO REGION WITH FRONT AFTER 10Z...EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS KMLB THROUGH 15Z. CIGS WILL LIFT SOMEWHAT INTO THE AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR...AND DROP AGAIN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. WINDS BECOMING N-NE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR -SHRA ALONG ALL COASTAL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG TREASURE COAST. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW 5-10KT INITIALLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER NORTHWEST BY MID-MORNING AS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT AND DISSIPATES LATER TODAY WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER MOST OF THE CONUS BECOMING DOMINANT...VEERING WINDS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SMALL WIND SURGE AS FLOW VEERS AROUND WITH WINDS BECOMING 10-15KTS THIS EVENING...AND A SOLID 15KTS OR EVEN 15-20KTS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS FLOW BECOMES SOLIDLY NE. SEAS 2-3FT INITIALLY...BUILDING TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 5FT OVER GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS. WILL ALSO SEE DOMINANT PERIODS SHORTEN RAPIDLY FROM 12-13SEC THIS MORNING TO AROUND 4-6SEC TONIGHT. CURRENTLY NO STATEMENTS IN PLACE FOR LOCAL WATERS...BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IF WIND SURGE IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. WED-SUN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO AROUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ON WED AND STALL. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ON WED STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM...SO LESS THAN IDEAL BOATING CONDITIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE SCHEDULED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THU AND BECOME EAST FRI. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST TO FRESHEN TO 15 KNOTS ON SAT. WITH THE WIND FLOW COMING AROUND TO AN ONSHORE DIRECTION QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LINGERING HIGHER MOISTURE...EXPECT ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MARINE SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 61 72 58 / 30 20 10 10 MCO 78 62 74 58 / 30 20 10 10 MLB 78 68 77 64 / 30 20 10 10 VRB 79 68 78 64 / 30 30 20 10 LEE 77 59 72 55 / 30 10 10 10 SFB 77 62 73 57 / 30 20 10 10 ORL 78 63 73 58 / 30 20 10 10 FPR 79 66 78 65 / 30 30 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOSES LONG TERM....KELLY PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Tue, 30 Dec 2014 09:20:02 +0000
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