Fall in demand for workers makes mockery of 457s BY:JUDITH SLOAN, CONTRIBUTING ECONOMICS EDITOR From: The Australian June 14, 2013 12:00AM IT is challenging to make interesting copy out of watching grass grow or cement set. It is even harder when you are staring at a slow-growing shrub in the garden and you are unsure if it will thrive or wilt. The labour market has been weakening slowly for some time, but the deterioration has not been dramatic. Trend employment continues to increase but not sufficiently to accommodate the growing labour force. Erratic movements in the participation rate complicate the interpretation of the figures. For instance, the unemployment rate in Western Australia fell from 5.3 per cent in April to 4.9 per cent in May. Does this mean that the labour market in Western Australia staged a rapid recovery in May? Actually, the number of employed people fell marginally and the explanation of the drop in the unemployment rate was the fall in the participation rate by 0.5 percentage points. Similarly, the ostensible improvement in the Victorian labour market - unemployment falling from 5.8 per cent in April to 5.4 per cent last month and employment rising by over 11,000 - seems a bit implausible. We should not forget that the standard errors attached to the state and territory labour force figures are relatively high and so caution should be applied when interpreting monthly movements at the state-territory level. Looking at the national figures, it is clear that employment is relatively flat, participation is falling and unemployment is inching up. There is nothing particularly eyecatching going on, which possibly augurs well for the transition from economic growth essentially spurred by mining investment to other sources of growth. Even so, there is a fair chance the jobless rate will exceed 6 per cent. By the standards of this century, this is disappointingly high. With all the kerfuffle surrounding the 457 visa program, it will be ironic that all the new controls, which are completely unwarranted, will not be required because the demand for foreign workers is drying up in line with the falling demand for locals. theaustralian.au/opinion/columnists/fall-in-demand-for-workers-makes-mockery-of-457s/story-fnbkvnk7-1226663465799
Posted on: Thu, 13 Jun 2013 19:37:41 +0000
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