Good Wednesday morning! I have said this many times and Ill say it again this morning. I really enjoy posting this mini-blog / forecast discussion every morning as you can really see how the computer models change and integrate ongoing atmospheric conditions into their calculations. Todays forecast discussion is a great example of that in relation to next weeks forecast. Ill get to that in a minute... For today, nothing has changed and it should be a very sunny, very typical fall day with winds not too bad either blowing from the south and southwest at 10-20 mph. High temperatures today will range from 76 degrees in Childress to 66 degrees in Clayton. Be sure and get out and enjoy this beautiful fall weather! Tonight, skies will be clear to mostly clear and it will be about as cold tomorrow morning as it is this morning with lows in the 30s and 40s. Of course, when you factor in the wind, blowing from the south at 5-15 mph this evening, then the west at 5-15 mph tomorrow morning, wind chill values will hover near 30 degrees! Tomorrow will feature a cold front blowing through the area during the day, but the colder air will wait until Thursday night and Friday before arriving. It will be a day in which our westerly morning winds at 5-15 mph, then shifting around to the northeast at 10-20 mph as the cold front blows through. The entire area should see the front blow through before noon, but Childress will reach a high of 79 degrees while the coldest high temperature will be found at Clayton at 64 degrees. It looks like we might see a light freeze over the OK Panhandle, the NW TX Panhandle (Dalhart, Stratford, Hartley, Channing, Dumas) and NE NM (Clayton, Amistad, Grenville and Des Moines) by sunrise on Halloween. The rest of us will see lows in the mid to upper 30s with only the southeastern TX Panhandle seeing lower 40s for low temperatures. Winds will blow from the northeast and east at 5-15 mph under mostly clear skies. Halloween looks nice and cool with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to the mid 60s under mostly sunny skies. Winds will blow lightly from the east at 5-15 mph in the morning, then the southeast at 5-15 mph in the afternoon hours. What about the trick-or-treating temperatures or the temps expected at the Friday night high school football games? Expect mid to upper 50s to start the games and during the peak trick-or-treating hours...and by the 4th quarter of the football games, expect lower to mid 50s. Winds will be light and blow from the southeast at 5-15 mph. Have fun and stay safe! Saturday will become breezy during the afternoon hours as a surface trough of low pressure develops and deepens to our west. This will give us a southerly wind at 10-20 mph in the morning, then increasing to the 15-25 mph average range with some gusts upward of 35-40 mph possible in the afternoon hours. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy throughout the day. High temperatures will range from the lower to mid 70s over the southeastern TX Panhandle to the mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Dont forget to set your clocks back one hour before you go to bed Saturday night as Daylight Saving Time comes to an end at 2am your time. Yes, that means an extra hour of sleep....or whatever....for us! If you dont set your clocks back an hour, you will be the only one at church or work as you will be there an hour early! Sunday will be windy as the approaching upper-level storm system nears and our wind...howls! Skies will be partly cloudy with southerly winds at 20-30 mph and gusting occasionally upward of 40-50 mph throughout the day. High temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees over most of the region...with highs in the lower to mid 80s over the eastern and southeastern TX Panhandle (Wheeler, Shamrock, Wellington, Memphis, Childress, Paducah and Quanah). Now...heres where the changes that I spoke about earlier come into play. Yesterday, the Canadian, European and GFS (Global Forecasting System, or American) Models hinted at a potential tropical system in the Pacific helping boost our rain chances. Well, today...they are ALL on board with this idea and all 3 show varying solutions on whats going to happen. The European is by FAR the wettest showing two rounds of rain. One when the cold front pushes through late Monday/early Tuesday...and the next when the remnants of the hurricane move directly overhead next Thursday. Look at the Europeans Deterministic Model showing over 2 inches of rain by next Friday! Again, this is IF the remnants of the hurricane move overhead. This is one models idea of whats going to happen as the GFS and Canadian arent quite on board with that idea. In fact, the GFS and Canadian show good rain chances as the cold front pushes through Monday night and Tuesday morning, but they take the remnants of the hurricane into Central Texas and away from us. The GFS has around an inch of rain with the frontal passage Monday night and Tuesday, so both the GFS and European agree on that idea that we will see an enhancement of our rain amounts and chances thanks to the added Pacific moisture from the hurricane (The Canadian agrees with this as well). So, lets get back to Mondays forecast. All the models agree that we will see mostly cloudy skies on Monday and isolated to widely scattered showers and a few t-storms as well. The extra cloud cover will combine with the rain chances to give us high temperatures around 70 degrees with breezy southerly winds at 15-25 mph and some higher gusts will be possible as well. On Tuesday, the high temperatures for the day will be reached around midnight and all 3 computer models agree that we will see temps around 60 degrees....that will drop to the mid 40s around lunch and stay that way for the rest of the day. If that wasnt cold enough, get ready for a breezy northeasterly wind at 15-25 mph with some gusts upward of 35-40 mph possible...making for wind chill values in the 30s! Skies will be cloudy all day with scattered to possibly numerous showers....some heavy! The rain will be out of here on Wednesday, but it looks like the cloud cover will linger with mostly cloudy skies and a cool high of 56 degrees! Winds will be light and shift to the east and southeast at 5-15 mph during the day. So, thats a look at your Wednesday morning weather! Take care, have a great day and join me at the same time tomorrow to see if the good rain chances for next week are still on their way!
Posted on: Wed, 29 Oct 2014 10:33:10 +0000
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