Good Wednesday morning! We have an interesting weather forecast for today because one part of our area (OK Panhandle and NE TX Panhandle) will be hot, dry and sunny. Eastern New Mexico and the southwestern TX Panhandle...WET and cloudy! Amarillo and Canyon will be squarely in the middle of these two competing air masses and that makes the forecast tricky! So, here we go! If you live in Clovis, Portales, Farwell, Friona, Bovina, Grady or Melrose, you can expect cloudy skies all day long and rain and a few t-storms today as your weather will be greatly influenced by whats left of Hurricane Odile....currently moving onshore over northwestern Mexico. The average rainfall amounts in these areas will vary from .15 to .50 with isolated, heavier totals from 1-2 with the stronger t-storms possible! In fact, a few of the t-storms yesterday in Idalou (NE of Lubbock) was as high as 7-8....per HOUR! They picked up .6 of rain in about 20 minutes and this is the kind of tropical-influenced downpours that we could see today...and for the next few days! Check out the HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model) indicates a LARGE swath of moderate to heavy rainfall over Eastern NM and the southwestern TX Panhandle at 3pm CDT. The NAM (North American Model) and the KVII Computer Model data at 5pm also show most of the rain in New Mexico, but not as heavy as the HRRR. Now, if you live in Guymon, Beaver, Perryton, Canadian and Booker, you will see plenty of sunshine today and high temperatures rising into the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Winds throughout the area will blow from the southwest at 10-20 mph. Amarillo and Canyon will between the cloud cover and rain to our southwest and the sunny skies to our northeast (a situation very similar to what we faced yesterday). Expect a high of 79 degrees in both cities today. We could see a few, isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon, but the majority of the rain will stay southwest of us. Tonight, more of the same is on its way as the remnants of Odile slowly head our way and the cloud cover will remain overhead. Rain is likely over Eastern NM and the southwestern TX Panhandle while the OK Panhandle and the NE TX Panhandle remains dry. Overnight lows in the 60s and 70s are likely as southerly and southwesterly winds at 5-15 mph prevail. Thursday will be a WET day for New Mexico as the remnants of Odile start moving through the Land of Enchantment. VERY heavy rainfall is possible with the latest computer models indicating as much as 5-7 inches of rain over the mountains of New Mexico, including the city of Ruidoso and possibly Roswell! The TX/OK Panhandles will also see increasing rain chances, especially Thursday afternoon and evening as Odiles remnants get closer. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s over the OK and NE TX Panhandles to the lower 70s over Eastern NM where rain is likely. Southwesterly morning winds at 10-20 mph will shift to the southeast as the area of low pressure associated with Odile start tapping into the Gulf of Mexico moisture...which will just increase our rain chances and rainfall amounts even more! Friday? Whew...it looks WET area-wide! Check out the GFS (Global Forecast System), European and Canadian computer models indicating what they think the radars will look like Friday from Noon to 7pm Friday evening. Yes, thats a LOT of rain and if you check out the Deterministic Computer Models of the European and GFS, you can see the average rainfall totals varying from .5 on the European to 1.4 for the GFS. I mentioned this yesterday that the European is trending toward the GFS and this continues today. The Canadian computer model, which just days ago showed absolutely, positively NO rainfall on Friday...showing rainfall now! So, our confidence in a very wet day on Friday is increasing and the average rainfall amounts look to vary from .25 to .75 with isolated, heavier totals from 1-3 possible from the heavier downpours! High temperatures will rise into the 70s and 80s as southerly and southwesterly winds at 10-20 mph prevail. Needless to say, the Friday night high school football forecast is wet and if you have to attend one of the games (or play in one), get ready to take the umbrellas, raincoats, overcoats, ponchos.....etc! Kickoff temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s with southeasterly winds at 10-20 mph throughout the games. Yes, this will be the third week in a row of rain during the games... The computer models are showing that the remnants of Odile may move by a little slower than we were thinking yesterday. What does this mean? Well, instead of clearing skies Saturday afternoon...the skies may not clear out until...Sunday morning. So, scattered to possibly numerous showers and a few t-storms will be possible during the day. Average rainfall will be lighter than Friday, but .15 to .50 of additional rainfall will be possible with a few, isolated heavier totals around 1-2 will be possible....especially over the eastern Panhandles. Winds will blow from the south at 5-15 mph Saturday morning, then become light and variable Saturday afternoon. High temperatures will rise into the 70s and 80s. We will awake to some cloud cover on Sunday morning, but as drier air pushes in behind a cold front, we can expect clearing skies and more sunshine! High temperatures will rise into the 70s to around 80 degrees by Sunday afternoon. Winds will be breezy and blow from the northeast at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts possible....especially in the morning hours. Fall officially begins at 9:29pm (CDT) Monday and it looks like the new season will arrive with very fall-like temperatures! High temperatures will rise into the upper 60s to the upper 70s by late day as northeasterly winds blow at only 5-15 mph. There will be plenty of sunshine with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies expected. The first, official full day of fall on Tuesday will be wonderful with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the 60s to around 70 degrees by late day! How nice is that?!? Winds will be light from the east at 5-15 mph in the morning, then the southeast at 5-15 mph in the afternoon hours. Get out and enjoy this fantastic fall weather! So, thats what you can expect for the next 7 days. Get those umbrellas ready and if you live in New Mexico, prepare for possibly flooding rainfall for your area! Take care and have a great Wednesday!
Posted on: Wed, 17 Sep 2014 10:48:49 +0000
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