I wonder why there is too much apprehension in recent times over President Goodluck Jonathan’s chances of winning the 2015 presidential election. Close observers of national events would feel the air of uncertainty hovering across the political firmament since the emergence of General Muhammadu Buhari as All Progressives Congress presidential candidate. This uncertainty gains momentum as the date of the elections draws closer. As if to aggravate the tension, some prominent clerics and autonomous leaders have joined the fray. Some are in favour of Jonathan’s re-election, while some are against it. The latest in the series of debates came from the Enugu-based fiery Catholic reverend gentleman, Ejike Mbaka, and the Ohaneze Ndigbo. According to media reports, Reverend Father Mbaka told his congregation that President Jonathan would lose the election in February. Ohaneze Ndigbo (its Ime Obi – inner caucus of the organization) was also reported to have disagreed over the choice of Jonathan; though this allegation has been refuted by the national secretary of the body. So, what are the implications of the positions of Fr. Mbaka and Ohaneze on Jonathan’s chances of retaining his seat (assuming there was any disagreement)? Let us look at Fr. Mbaka’s vituperation first. To be frank, Fr. Mbaka is not a person whose utterances should be taken with a pinch of salt. But this does not mean his prediction must come to pass. Agreed he is nationally respected because of his antecedents, especially during the heydays of Chimaroke Nnamani as governor of Enugu State. It was widely believed that it was the curse Fr. Mbaka placed on the former governor that was responsible for some of the misfortunes that befell him later. As a person, I hold any man of God in high esteem since they were chosen by God to work in His vineyard. However, I am worried that Fr. Mbaka should make such a categorical statement at this critical time, particularly when we have less than two months to the general elections. I am also worried that he made a volte face as he had earlier endorsed the candidacy of Jonathan when the president’s wife visited his church in November last year. The question now is: why did Fr. Mbaka change his position on Jonathan after openly endorsing him? To answer this question objectively we have to look at recent developments. Before the reverend father made his endorsement in November last year probably the political atmosphere was not as charged and clear as it is today. Second, nobody knew for sure that the alliance among the parties that gave birth to All Progressives Congress (APC) was going to succeed. And when it did it upturned the applecart. Third, the unsettling developments from the just-concluded primaries of political parties, especially the PDP, might have contributed to the uncertainty. Fourth, there could be something the cleric saw now that he did not see in November last year. Given the benefit of the doubt, Fr. Mbaka has every right to air his views on any national issues – that is his constitutional right. Nonetheless, his recent outburst against the President was untimely, ill-conceived and a negation of objective assessment. I do not think it was proper for him to have made that statement considering the tension it was going to generate. The fire it has raised will be difficult to quench before the elections set in. Then enter Ohaneze Ndigbo! It was reported that its Ime-Obi (inner caucus) had disagreements in endorsing Jonathan for second term. I wonder why the disagreements? I know that the Igbo socio-cultural organization has always had sympathy for President Jonathan, and demonstrated this much by championing his election in 2011. If there are disagreements now then something should be wrong somewhere. What should be done is to call the leadership of the association to a roundtable to iron out the grey areas. My take on the position of Ohaneze is that whatever decision they reach on the matter eventually will be supported by a majority of Ndigbo. But let them remember that the decision I took to drop my presidential aspiration for 2015 was hinged on the pressure they mounted on me to shelve it in support of President Jonathan. I obeyed to demonstrate the respect I have for the association and the need to build a cohesive Igbo solidarity that will transcend political and clannish inclinations. I have read some of the reasons given by some Igbo leaders for not being favourably disposed to Jonathan’s project this time round. While some of them are objective others are wishy-washy. If Ohaneze thinks the President had not lived up to his promises to it then the rational thing to do is to renegotiate. The best choice is not to dump the president in the eleventh hour. Doing so smacked of immaturity and insensitivity. As I indicated earlier the utterance by the catholic cleric may not change anything in terms of groundswell of support for the president. The only negative impact it could have is the possibility of the president losing the votes of an infinitesimal percentage of the cleric’s adherents who before the statement would be counted among the President’s supporters. Again, it could draw sympathy to the President from some persons that might feel he had been unfairly treated. Whichever way one looks at the situation it does not raise any cause for alarm for the president. Already the media are awash with varied reactions from a cross section of the populace on the matter. There are clearly two parallel lines on the issue. From all the reasons adduced by the different schools of thought there is a distinct message: the President should watch his advisers and others who assist him in the running of the affairs of the nation. He should not be overconfident and then go to sleep. He needs to sustain the tempo of his performance and even do more to continue to delight Nigerians. It may not be assuming too much to conclude that some of the president’s advisers have not advised him properly on a number of critical matters. The President needs to know that all is not well within our party. As the national leader of the party the buck stops at his table in the way the party is guided. There is no doubt that the national chairman of our party is working hard to reposition the party, but the evidence is overwhelmingly clear that some mischief-makers in the party are also working to pull him down. The chairman’s vision has always been to build a truly national party devoid of sectarianism, clannishness, parochialism, and individualism. But what have we got: opposition from unusual quarters bent on having their way. This manifested in the way the just-concluded primaries of our party were conducted, which was far from fairness. It was hijacked by some hawks who never meant well for the party. Check the list of those that control the party in many states of the federation and you will see the level of distortion and perfidy that prevails. It is painful that some of those that now call the shots in the party are political featherweights and empty vessels. How many of them can win election on their own without the support of the party machinery at the national level? Somebody poked a joke recently on the composition of the membership of the President’s campaign team. He described many members of the team as gerontocrats. What the commentator forgot is that politics is a game of experience, which the so-called gerontocrats have in abundance and will bring to bear on the electioneering. The President ordinarily would not have had any problem getting reelected as he has performed creditably. The only factor responsible for the present hullabaloo is the way the primaries were handled, which caused so much controversy and disaffection in the party. It even led to the defection of some key members of the party to opposition political parties. If we should tell ourselves the truth, all things being equal, President Jonathan will be re-elected with minimal stress, because of his sterling performance in the past 6 years. I refuse to agree with critics of President Jonathan that he has not performed well enough to be re-elected. One may not see the tangibility of all that he has done in the past 6 years, because they are long-term in nature. The next four years will manifest many of them. However, it will be nice to discuss a few of his achievements, even if it means in passing. Economy: he has taken far-reaching measures to rebuild the economy and place it on a sound footing. Many of the indices show signs of growth. Take for instance, inflation. This has remained at the single digit point in the past four years. The focus of the administration of Jonathan has been moved from oil to agriculture as the mainstay of the economy. The expected result is that Nigeria will be self-sufficient in food production in another four to five years. This was something unthinkable a few years ago. What of youth empowerment? No government before now had made any tangible effort in this direction. You-Win and other transformational initiatives have helped tremendously in reducing youth unemployment and stimulating the economy for sustainable growth. What the critics of Jonathan may not know is that many of the initiatives in his transformational agenda have the capacity of elevating Nigeria’s economy to global preeminence. Already some of these initiatives have begun bringing dividends. The foreign policy thrust of this administration has boosted the image of the country and drawn more respect to Nigerians travelling or living abroad. In any case, there have been a few hiccups in attaining sustainability in this connection. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Kudos should also go to the president for the maturity with which his administration has handled the privatization of some government-owned companies and agencies. Probably, what the detractors of Jonathan always point at is the palpable state of insecurity in the country. They may have a valid point in the argument that the war against terror is taking too much time to win. But they should take the peculiarities of our nationhood into consideration. Terror is alien to Nigeria and it came into the country at a time it was least expected. And so, government, and even the citizens, was ill-prepared to confront it. Curiously, the United States and other western nations, despite their sophistication, still find it difficult to deal with the ogre of terrorism. As the President has continually assured terror will be defeated ultimately. It is just a matter of time. The approach of the government may be slow, but it is effective. However, I still do not understand why it has rebuffed the offer I made to it to mediate a settlement with Boko Haram. I feel I can use my God-given talents to negotiate peaceful settlement with the terror group and restore normalcy. Though times may be perilous, there are still a few beautiful things to see from all that is happening. First, the emergence of APC has subtly paved way for a two-party system for Nigeria. This is what I had been advocating a very long time. Multi-party system breeds confusion and makes the political space rowdy. A two-party system makes it easier for voters to make quality choices. It also narrows the ideological gaps among the parties. There is no doubt whatsoever voters have just two major candidates to choose from in the forthcoming presidential election: Jonathan or Buhari. In my opinion both men are eminently qualified to govern Nigeria, after all one was a former head of State and the other a serving one. What Nigerians should do is to look critically at their antecedents – both as presidents and individuals – to see the one between them that has the capacity and humaneness to give Nigeria the new impetus it requires to trudge along the tortuous path of growth and development. It is not enough to consider only their utterances. Let their actions be the parameter with which to judge them. Even religion should not play any role. Those who play up the religious sentiments are simply pandering to undue emotion. Religion is a very dangerous element in politics and therefore should not be played up for selfish reasons. Many nations of the world are today embroiled in religious wars. And this is what Nigeria should do everything to avoid. There is no reason the north should note vote for a Christian from the South and vice versa. What is important is that the individual involved is a Nigerian citizen and meets all the requirements to vote and be voted for. What is paramount to me is for the elections to be free, fair and credible. It does not matter where the leader comes from or what faith he or she professes. Those fanning the embers of hate are enemies of Nigeria. Their plot is to continue to estrange Nigerians from one another and by so doing create animosity that fuels crises from which they profit. The electorate should shun divisive politics and undue influence and vote for anybody of their choice without coercion or intimidation. I urge Nigerian voters to vote wisely so that our nation will consolidate on the gains of the immediate past and be positioned for a more competitive world that is to come.
Posted on: Sat, 10 Jan 2015 16:12:41 +0000
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