In Zimbabwe the coming year holds fascinating promise. I estimate that up to $20 billion in various projects ranging from steel manufacture, to base metal and precious metal production on a large scale as well as major investment in agriculture and infrastructure and tourism ($3,5 billion in the Victoria Falls alone) are simply waiting for the right signals from Harare. Those signals are not complex or many but will determine what sort of year we will have and how the overall trajectory of the economy will be established. In a sense we have made a start, the Mnangagwa team has effectively taken over as the main center of power, been welcomed officially by the Chinese Government and is being watched very closely by all Western States. But the transfer of power is not complete; they have to deal with the remaining elements of the Mujuru faction in Zanu PF as well as recalcitrant elements such as the “Gang of Four” who have ambitions beyond their station. The other critical issue is how the “Old Man” of Zimbabwe politics will behave when he comes home in January. Success is critically dependent on both men working closely together and in sync to secure progress on other fronts.
Posted on: Sun, 04 Jan 2015 23:19:46 +0000
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