Market Factors to Watch | Monday, 21 October 2013 ==================================== GLOBAL MARKETS ==================================== • U.S. STOCKS — U.S. stocks rose on Friday, with the S&P 500 index heading for its best week in more than three months and earnings from Google, Morgan Stanley and others lifting sentiment. The S&P 500, which rose above Thursdays intraday record of 1732.92 and all-time closing high of 1732.90, was on pace for its third straight day of gains. In addition to earnings, the markets rise was based on expectations that the Federal Reserve will delay trimming its stimulus measures due to the damage inflicted on the economy by the partial U.S. government shutdown that ended on Thursday. The market was also relieved that Washington had reached a deal to end the fiscal stalemate. • U.S. TREASURIES — The impasse over Americas debt ceiling and a temporary shutdown of the federal government have not affected the U.S. Treasury Departments planned calendar for debt issuance, a Treasury official said on Friday. The official spoke to reporters in a briefing regarding upcoming meetings between Treasury officials and dealers of U.S. government securities ahead of the Treasurys November 6 quarterly refunding announcement. The meetings will include discussion of the Treasurys plans to begin issuing two-year floating rate notes in January, according to an agenda of the meetings released on Friday by the Treasury. • FOREX — The dollar nursed losses near an eight-month low against a basket of currencies on Friday as traders focused on the economic impact of an acrimonious showdown in Washington that dragged the U.S. to the brink of a debt default. The potential damage to the economy from the weeks-long government shutdown could discourage the Federal Reserve from scaling back its stimulus program at least until the beginning of next year. The first wave of U.S. data released on Thursday after the government returned to work was fairly upbeat. But the main focus is squarely on the September payrolls report, which the Labor department said will be published on Tuesday. The dollar index stood at 79.693 in early Asian trade, having fallen to as low as 79.613 on Thursday, its lowest level since early February. The dollars fall partially reflected the rise in risk-sensitive currencies as expectations of continued U.S. stimulus helped to boost Wall Street shares, with the S&P 500 index hitting a record high on Thursday. • GOLD — Gold fell on Friday as investors took profits after the previous sessions 3 percent rally on expectations the partial U.S. government shutdown will lead the Federal Reserve to postpone tapering of its bond-buying stimulus. The precious metal was up more than 3 percent for the week, its biggest weekly gain in two months. Heavy short covering boosted gold prices after the Congress clinched an 11th-hour deal earlier this week to pull the worlds biggest economy back from the brink of debt default. However, golds upward momentum faded on Friday, partly after data showed holdings in the worlds largest bullion exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, fell. U.S. Comex gold futures for December delivery settled down $8.40 an ounce at $1,314.60, with volume at just 100,000 lots, about 40 percent below its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed. • BRENT — Brent futures rose on Friday, holding above $109 a barrel as data showing Chinas economy grew at the fastest pace this year in the third quarter helped offset concerns about demand for oil after a rise in crude stockpiles in the United States. The Chinese data underpinned the better tone in financial markets; a day after the United States sealed an 11th-hour deal to end a government shutdown. Asian shares hit a five-month high, although gains in oil may be limited by the worries about demand plus the prospect of further U.S. fiscal talks in just a few months time. Brent crude had gained 17 cents to $109.28 a barrel by 0428 GMT, after settling $1.48 lower. U.S. oil gained 11 cents to $100.78, after ending $1.62 lower overnight. Oil is expected to stay in a tight range until clearer evidence is available on the demand outlook in the United States. U.S. oil may slip to $96-$97, and while the probability is low, it may dip to $92 if that level is broken, Emori said. The low for Brent is seen at about $100 a barrel. • NIKKEI — Japans Nikkei stock average slipped on Friday, succumbing to profit-taking after a seven-session rally, while investors pondered the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on the worlds largest economy. The benchmark Nikkei eased 0.2 percent to 14,561.54, after a seven-day rally through Thursday that was its longest winning streak in 7-1/2 months. On the week, it gained 1.1 percent, its second straight weekly gain. Japanese stocks showed a muted reaction to a slew of Chinese economic data that showed a pick-up in growth momentum but were broadly within expectations. ==================================== MALAYSIA ==================================== • PALM OIL — Malaysian palm oil futures ended higher on Friday, reversing some losses in the morning session after the ringgit eased a little, while hopes of only a slight rise in stocks lifted prices to post their second weekly rise in a row. Prices hit their highest in more than five weeks on Thursday on optimism that output volumes in Malaysia, the worlds second-largest producer, may not surge as much as expected earlier, prompting investors to book profits. The ringgit fell 0.1 percent to 3.1525 in late Friday trade, but gained 0.8 percent this week, rising along other emerging Asian currencies after U.S. lawmakers struck an 11th-hour deal to avoid a sovereign debt default. Traders say the palm market is robust on prospects of a meek rise in production growth in October, which along with strong demand could keep stocks below 2 million tonnes in 2013. By Fridays close, the benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged up 0.1 percent to 2,402 ringgit ($760) per tonne. Prices earlier dipped to 2,378 ringgit. Total traded volume stood at 28,174 lots of 25 tonnes each, lower than the usual 35,000 lots. Palm oil prices have risen 3.5 percent so far in October and posted a weekly gain of about 0.9 percent, supported by healthy demand. Cargo surveyor data showed that exports of Malaysian palm oil in the first half of October rose to 781,043-799,853 tonnes, about 7-12 percent higher from a month earlier as purchases from Europe and China increased. Production from Indonesia, the worlds top producer, could also be curbed due to a government rule that limits plantation areas to just 100,000 hectares for new palm oil firms, threatening an ambitious output goal of 40 million tonnes by 2020, an industry group said on Friday. • COMPETING VEGOIL — In competing vegetable oil markets, the U.S. soyoil contract for December rose 0.3 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active January soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange fell 0.1 percent. • FBM KLCI — The FBM KLCI ended Friday on a positive note as late buying helped it close in the positive zone, with Westports – the largest IPO so far this year – in focus. The recovery of the 30-stock index was in tandem with gains in the Asian markets as investor sentiment was boosted by China’s economy data. At 5pm on Friday, the KLCI was up 2.17 points to 1,799.59, again below the crucial 1,800 level. Reuters said expectations the Federal Reserve will keep its stimulus in place for longer following the confidence-sapping US fiscal impasse pushed world shares to a five-year high and the dollar to an eight-month low on Friday. ==================================== CLOSING PRICES FOR U.S. MARKET Friday, 18 October 2013 ==================================== • DJIA Up 28.00 points at 15,399.65 • NASDAQ Up 51.13 points at 3,914.28 • S&P 500 Up 11.35 points at 1,744.50 • US Soybean Oil [Dec’13] Up +0.56 points at 41.68 dollars per metric ton • NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) [Nov’13] Up +0.24 points at 101.11 dollars a barrel • US COMEX Gold [Dec’13] Down -8.4 points at 1314.6 dollars an ounce ==================================== CLOSING PRICES FOR CHINA MARKET Friday, 18 October 2013 ==================================== • DALIAN SOYBEAN (Jan 14) up 16 at 4,646 • DALIAN SOYBEAN OIL (Jan 14) down 4 at 7170 • DALIAN PALM OIL (Jan 14) closed up 030 points at 5778 ==================================== CLOSING PRICES FOR MALAYSIA MARKET Friday, 18 October 2013 ==================================== • FCPO (Jan 14) closed up 4 at 2,402 • FKLI (Oct 13) closed down 1.5 at 1,798.5 • FBM KLCI up 2.17 points to close at 1,799.59
Posted on: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 07:55:02 +0000
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