Matt Rt12 Good Morning Chasers and friends, here is the latest day 1 from the SPC. Be safe... spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHEAST... MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AS A SECONDARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE OVER AR/LA. NET RESULT WILL BE FOR MOIST SWLY FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WHERE PW VALUES REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES. WHILE POOR LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE A FEW ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS COULD EMERGE DURING THE DAY WITHIN BROADER CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION FROM THE NERN GOM ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS DIURNAL HEATING COULD STRENGTHEN STORMS ENOUGH FOR A FEW WET MICRO BURSTS. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... DEEP LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER AND BECOME DUE NLY BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER THE MS VALLEY. WITH SFC RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/ERN PLAINS IT APPEARS FAIRLY DEEP ELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT WILL FORCE MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE TOWARD THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO PORTIONS OF THE SWRN U.S./SRN ROCKIES AND WEST TX WHERE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE WILL CONGREGATE. ONGOING MCS OVER NRN OK MAY SPREAD/PROPAGATE SSWWD TOWARD NWRN TX BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IT APPEARS RENEWED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG EDGE OF CLOUD DEBRIS/OUTFLOW ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS COULD GENERATE HAIL OR PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL STORMS. ...INTERIOR OREGON... MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. THROUGH THE UPCOMING DAY1 PERIOD. WHILE WEAK HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ORE FRIDAY IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONGLY SHEARED HIGH BASED STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. FORECAST MOISTURE APPEARS A BIT TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT ORGANIZED SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION.
Posted on: Fri, 16 Aug 2013 08:35:00 +0000
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