Officials at the Centers For Disease Control (CDC) have analyzed this exponential spread to provide a forecast of the current rate of effectiveness at combating the virus, along with what scientists have determined is the ideal rate necessary to actually contain the virus. According to mathematical epidemiologist, Dr. Gerardo Chowell, the circulation of the virus will begin to subside once the reproduction rate falls below one. The reproduction rate is a scientific estimate of how many additional people will be infected from each individual that contracts the virus. WaPo put the transmission rate and how it needs to be contained in context, based on CDC numbers: Dr. Bruce Aylward, Assistant Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), proposed that one way to lower the reproduction rate to a manageable level is to ensure that at least 70% of Ebola victim burials are conducted safely, and at least 70% of infected individuals get treatment within 60 days. Sure, this doesnt seem like a big deal in the U.S., but due to geography, poverty and local customs, this is quite the task in West Africa. As of Wednesday, in the three countries alone, there have been a reported 8,033 confirmed or suspected cases and 3,865 deaths. Unfortunately, many health officials have estimated a devastatingly exponential spread by taking into account the high number of assumed cases that have gone unreported. Although, it is unlikely that we will ever know the accuracy of these predictions, it is undeniable that there is currently an overwhelming lack of basic resources needed to combat the virus, such as latex gloves and hospital beds. As part of its global effort, the U.S. is sending nearly 4,000 troops into the area to construct 17 treatment centers which will house 100 beds each. However, these facilities will not be completed until mid-November. Enough bad news, let’s end with some something positive. According to Dr. Frieden, “It is still possible to reverse the epidemic, and we believe this can be done if a sufficient number of all patients are effectively isolated, either in Ebola treatment units or in other settings, such as community-based or home care . . . Once a sufficient number of Ebola patients are isolated, cases will decline very rapidly – almost as rapidly as they rose.” Let’s sure hope so . . .
Posted on: Sun, 12 Oct 2014 01:27:19 +0000
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